Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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108 FXUS64 KMAF 120503 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 After a busy day yesterday, things are a bit quieter this afternoon. Visible satellite shows a low cu deck moving into the Permian Basin and parts of Lea County, but should scatter out in the next few hours. There remains an abundance of low-level moisture across the eastern Permian Basin where PW values exceed an inch, and residual boundaries from last nights storms will initiate some additional storms this afternoon. Better shear and instability is displaced to the east and southeast today, and thus the severe weather threat looks marginal at best for us this afternoon. Still, any storms developing off the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will be able to quickly become severe, with hail, lightning, and strong winds all a threat. As storms move out tonight, surface winds shift more southeasterly in response to lee troughing to the north, and strong upper level ridging builds in across the west. This will result in a cloudy morning on Wednesday before temperatures warm to the 90s/low 100s Wednesday afternoon. Despite ridging typically meaning dry weather, a few storms will be possible in the afternoon hours across the higher terrain, namely, the Davis and Sacramento Mountains. No severe weather expected Wednesday at this point. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The long term forecast calls for seasonably hot and dry conditions across the entire area. Later this week an upper high to our west breaks down due to an upper level low off the California coast moving inland. Current models show the high being stronger than yesterday`s runs and pushing the low farther north before weakening. A more northerly track of the low decreases rain chances for our western counties and it now appears Friday may be the only chance for rain from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. Temperatures bounce around a little over the weekend and into early next week though the general trend will be for warmer temperatures aloft to be offset with modified gulf air at the surface from the southeast. Run to run consistency on all the medium range models isn`t the best so the NBM ensemble guidance is the best forecast bet for now which is highs in the upper 90s in the Permian Basin and mountains, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees in the lower elevations of the Big Bend and the Pecos River valley. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR VIS and CIGs prevail at all terminals throughout TAF period. Light easterly winds at all terminals decrease in speed until 17Z Wednesday. Winds back to northeasterly at FST at 17Z. Winds at all terminals shift to southeasterly by 03Z Thursday, with gustiest winds for terminals across SE NM plains into western Permian Basin and over Stockton Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 71 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 99 73 104 75 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 97 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 73 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 93 71 97 73 / 10 0 10 10 Hobbs 94 68 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 96 62 98 62 / 20 0 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 94 72 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 94 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 99 75 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...94