654
FXUS64 KMAF 181721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 813 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A band of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly slide east
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this morning. This
band is supported by elevated instability and a weak mid-level
impulse moving across the region. Continued maintenance and
modest development of this band is expected through the next
couple of hours before this activity moves east and out of the
region. Have updated the forecast to reflect these changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Winds are elevated across much of the region this morning with gusts
into the 30s and 40s in some spots thanks to a strong low level jet.
This jet will continue into the morning and bring low clouds in
across parts of the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin,
including Midland/Odessa. CLouds will lift during the mid to late
morning and temperatures will warm into the upper 90s for most
with low 100s across the Pecos River Valley. Highs will be into
the 110s in Big Bend along the Rio Grande. Given this, a Heat
Advisory has been issued for this afternoon into the early
evening.

A select few around the Davis Mountains and onto the Stockton
Plateau may see some isolated showers and storms this afternoon.
Rain amounts will be light outside of the strongest cells. Steep
lapse rates, ~2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and some shear may lead to one or
two storms being severe with hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. Lows tonight settle into the low 70s for most with 60s in
the mountains.

Wednesday sees the thermal ridge push to the west as an organizing
tropical disturbance begins to move into the Mexican gulf coast.
This will lead to temperatures falling below normal nearly areawide
with high in the upper 80s to 90s. The hot spots along the Rio
Grande will still make it over the century mark, but still end up
several degrees cooler compared to the last few days. Additional
moisture and increasing broad scale ascent increase rain chances
late in the day.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Wednesday night, a tropical disturbance will move onshore in Mexico
a couple hundred miles south of Brownsville, advecting a rich,
tropical airmass into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  E-NE
winds are forecast to increase Wednesday night/Thursday over the
higher terrain, w/MOS even suggesting high winds in the Guadalupes,
but we won`t take that bait just yet.  POPs will begin increasing
over the lower Trans Pecos, increasing WNW Thursday, w/best chances
along and west of the Pecos.  PWATs will be on the increase, peaking
at KMAF 00Z Friday at 1.97"/1.71" on the NAM/GFS, respectively.
Climatological max is 1.66", with a mean of 1.01", so the potential
for respectable QPF will be there as warm rain processes commence.
With any luck, this will put a dent in D2/D3 conditions west of the
Pecos, and bring the Pecos/Rio Grande above baseflow.  With
increased cloud cover, moisture, and convection, Thursday will be
more like Brrrrsday as highs come in some ~ 15 F below normal.

Thursday night, the tropical disturbance, or what`s left of it, will
move into the Pacific south of Baja del Sur, but NBM keeps likely
POPs west of the Pecos through Friday afternoon.  This is probably
too long, as long-range models are wont to do that far out.  As the
tropical disturbance exits WSW, the upper ridge, currently over the
eastern seaboard, is forecast to build back into the southwest
CONUS/northwest Mexico, resulting in a warming trend after Thursday.
By Monday, highs should be back to a respectable ~ 5 F above normal.
After Friday, convection each day will be confined to the Davis
Mountains and possible far NW as diurnally-driven activity rolls out
of the Sacramento Foothills.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Strong and occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue at
all terminals through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  90  69  79 /   0   0  30  60
Carlsbad                 72  94  70  77 /  10  10  40  80
Dryden                   73  91  70  78 /   0  10  70  90
Fort Stockton            72  92  69  77 /  10  10  40  80
Guadalupe Pass           68  88  64  71 /   0  20  50  80
Hobbs                    70  90  66  76 /  10   0  30  70
Marfa                    62  91  61  73 /  10  20  50  90
Midland Intl Airport     72  89  69  77 /   0   0  30  60
Odessa                   73  89  69  77 /   0   0  30  70
Wink                     75  94  72  81 /  10   0  30  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91