548
FXUS64 KMAF 140438
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1138 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Current satellite shows some cumulus and light showers developing
in the Guadalupe and Davis mountains driven by surface heating
and elevation. Not expecting much out of this activity before it
dissipates shortly after sunset. As expected, temperatures are up
into the 90s to low 100s already under mostly clear skies and will
continue to climb a few more degrees before peak heating. Temps
tonight drop into the 70s with some 60s in the mountains before we
see the heat return tomorrow. An upper level ridge over the area
will weaken as an upper low moves in off the West Coast. This
should help shave a degree or two off highs tomorrow as well as
bring a slightly higher chance for showers and thunderstorms from
southeastern New Mexico into the Davis Mountains. A storm or two
could be strong but severe weather is not expected. Lows tomorrow
night will be similar to tonight, dropping into the 70s for most
locations not in the mountains.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The long term stays in a fairly quiet and stagnant pattern as we
move through this weekend and into early next week. A weak trough
lifts away into the north-central Plains on the day Saturday, with
weak ridging re-taking a hold over the region. The ridge never
becomes very strong, helping to limit the heat potential some.
High temperatures on Saturday through Tuesday stay roughly the
same, topping out in the upper 90s for most with 100s found along
and near the Pecos/Rio Grande river valleys. Daily Heat Advisories
are possible across the Big Bend and the more vulnerable higher
elevations, but the Permian Basin looks to avoid headline-worthy
heat. In fact, the forecast keeps KMAF`s highs under 100 through
the long term...so we`ll take it. As for precipitation, the weak
subsidence from the ridging limits storm chances to the classic
spots over the Davis Mountains each afternoon through Tuesday.

As we move into the middle of next week, long-range
models/ensembles are hinting at a tropical disturbance/inverted
trough sneaking into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. If this
occurs, it could bring some welcome moisture and less hot
conditions.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. The
southeast winds will increase and become gusty late morning/early
afternoon Friday. Forecast soundings spawn a cu field everywhere
but KINK/KFST, w/bases 4.5-10 kft AGL. Convection is anticipated,
mainly SE NM, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm. A
40+ kt LLJ will keep winds elevated Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                103  74 101  73 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                  100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           98  73  95  71 /   0  10  20  20
Hobbs                    99  70  98  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    99  60  97  63 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  75 103  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44