191
FXUS64 KMAF 150852
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
352 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough overriding the ridge into the
Central Plains this morning, trailing a line of convection that
stayed just north of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

Today, as the trough pulls farther away from the region, its
influences wanes, and the upper ridge develops back into the area.
As such, and increase in thicknesses/temperatures is on tap into
next week.  Temperatures today should be 2-3 degrees warmer than
yesterday`s.  Trying to be a bit more conservative on heat
advisories, only the higher elevations look to be affected today.
Diurnally-driven convection will be possible in the Davis Mountains
this afternoon/evening, and a few cells may develop on the tail of
the exiting trough, but CAMs are not very enthusiastic about this,
and chances will be isolated at best.  Deep-layer shear and mid-
level lapse rates are sufficient that a cell or two could go severe.
In addition, forecast soundings depict high cu bases ( ~ 7-10 kft
AGL) and dry subcloud layers for a wind threat.

Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ develops, inhibiting radiational cooling
despite mostly clear skies, yielding overnight minimums ~ 7-9 F
above normal.

Sunday looks like a repeat of today, only warmer as thicknesses
increase under the ever-strengthening ridge.  Highs should be around
2-3 F warmer than today, warranting continued heat advisories.
Diurnally-driven isolated convection is expected, especially in the
Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Weak ridging holds just to the west of the region and will be pushed
to the east slightly. For much of the area, this means less cloud
cover and temperatures several degrees higher than yesterday. Most
spots will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. The Big Bend being
the hottest spot reaching into the 110s. The inherited Heat Advisory
will remain as is given the aforementioned temperatures. Southeast
flow continues through this morning and will aid in keeping some low
level moisture over western zones. Isolated storms will be possible
from near the border to the north into SE NM with some agreement in
current hi-res guidance. Any accumulations will be light overall.

Temperatures stay above normal tonight with most only settling in
the low to mid 70s. Higher elevations cooling into the 60s. The
ridge weakens further as an upper low cuts across the Rockies.
Better rain chances appear over the Davis Mountains and into SE NM
Friday afternoon. Once again, precipitation amounts will be limited
as any activity will be isolated in nature. Highs areawide reach
into the upper 90s to low 100s.

-Stickney


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in modest return flow. A
40+kt LLJ tonight and Saturday night will keep winds elevated.
Otherwise, return flow will become gusty during the afternoon.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field during the
afternoon, w/bases 7-10 kft AGL. Convection is possible, but
chances are too low to warrant a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  75 100  74 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                102  71 105  71 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  75 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton           102  74 105  74 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    97  69 101  70 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    97  62 100  63 /  20  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     97  74  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   97  75 100  75 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                    104  75 107  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44