Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
778 FXUS64 KMAF 160805 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough making landfall on the west coast just north of the Bay Area. This will nudge the ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the east today, developing southwest flow aloft over the region. Despite this, hi- res models suggest highs this afternoon will be within a degree or so of where they were yesterday...around 5 F above normal. CAMs also develop isolated afternoon convection invof the Davis Mountains. Tonight, a 30+kt LLJ develops as return flow increases, surging boundary layer moisture into the area. This, in addition to increasing high cloud ahead of the west coast trough, will keep overnight lows 8-10 F above normal. Tuesday, the west coast trough ejects to the Idaho/Wyoming border by 00Z Wednesday. Thicknesses increase a little, adding 2-3 F to this afternoon`s highs. A dryline is forecast to develop west of the CWA, and large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will combine w/upslope flow to open a window for isolated afternoon convection over Southeast New Mexico and areas to the south. W/this synoptic setup, deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts is forecast develop over much of the area...more than has been present in some time. Hail doesn`t look to be a concern, as mid-level lapse rates are rather tepid, the steeper rates to the northwest of the CWA. However, increased dcapes and dry subcloud layers/inverted-v soundings suggest a few cells could approach severe levels due to damaging outflows. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heading into Tuesday evening, storms from that afternoon gradually taper off during the night with a loss of daytime heating. As the upper low moves off to the north, the upper ridge originally in place amplifies over the southern Great Plains. Temperatures move up into the 90s areawide for Wednesday and Thursday with the Pecos River Valley reaching back towards the century mark. Lows stay well above normal in the 60s to low 70s during the same time. Late in the week and into the next weekend, another upper low nears the region and the ridge flattens and shifts to the east. Temperatures dip closer to normal, 80s to 90F during the day and 60s at night, with increasing chances for rain. Plenty of moving parts in regards to how the upper level pattern plays out, so much will change over the next few days. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at times in places during the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temps too high for cu in the northeast, whereas development is likely farther southwest late morning/early afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 4.5-9 kft AGL. No convection expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 90 68 92 67 / 0 10 20 20 Dryden 91 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 91 68 94 71 / 10 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 83 66 85 65 / 10 10 20 20 Hobbs 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 87 61 89 65 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 91 69 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 90 69 92 73 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 92 69 95 73 / 0 0 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44