439
FXUS64 KMAF 141724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

WV imagery shows an upper trough over the junction of CA/AZ/Baja del
Norte/Sonora this morning, deforming the upper ridge to the SSE.
This feature is forecast to open later this morning, and pass
through the Four Corners this afternoon.  This will bring
thicknesses down a little, shaving maybe a degree or so off
yeterday`s highs, but highs will still average 6-8 F above normal.
This will warrant heat advisories, from some of the mountain ranges
to along the Brewster Rio Grande.  The trajectory of the trough will
also result in isolated afternoon/evening convection over Southeast
New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is on track to develop, advecting rich Gulf
moisture across the lower terrain.  This will retard radiational
cooling, despite mostly clear skies, maintaining unseasonably warm
overnight mins ` 7-9 F above normal.

Saturday, with the upper trough to the east of the area, the ridge
builds back in, increasing thicknesses and bringing highs back to
where they were yesterday...~ 7-9 F above normal.  More Heat
Advisories will be needed.  Isolated, diurnally-driven convection
will be possible in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Weak ridging keeps hold this weekend and will keep temperatures just
above average for most. KMAF has already had 8 100F days this year
with the average being just 17 days. However, the forecast keeps
highs just under the century mark at Midland Intl. The hot spots
will continue to be the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys where
highs will top 105F. Heat advisories will likely need to be issued
for some of these areas as heat stress compounds over time. Lows
each morning for the early part of next week settle into the 70s
across the lower elevations with 60s in the mountains.

By the middle of the coming week, heights lower slightly and
tropical moisture begins to intrude from the southeast. Long range
guidance suggests PWATs ranging from about 1.6" to nearly 2" which
would be in the 99th percentile based on sounding climatology for
MAF. For the curious, the highest PWAT as recorded by a sounding is
2.10" from the 7/18/86 12z flight. Needless to say, shower and storm
chances increase with this abundant moisture, but it is still a bit
far out to glean just how much rain falls and where. Temperatures
from Wednesday onward take on a cooling trend and end up below
normal each afternoon.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will remain this TAF period. Isolated TS will form
in the Guadalupe Mountains and push east into Eddy County
potentially affecting CNM. Uncertainty is too high to include in
the TAF but TS will probably be close enough that if not on
station then it will impact local flying operations. Modest and
gusty southeast winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  75 100  75 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                101  73 104  70 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                  100  76 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  75 103  74 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           96  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
Hobbs                    98  70 100  69 /   0  20  10  10
Marfa                    97  63  99  63 /  10  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   99  75 100  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    104  76 106  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10