371
FXUS64 KMAF 142006
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Current visible satellite shows an extensive cumulus cloud deck
extending from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast. This is good to
see as it is what had been until recently, climatologically normal.
A typical summer pattern has an upper level high to our west with
surface high pressure over East Texas and the northern Gulf Coast
advecting moist, Gulf of Mexico air all the way to far West Texas
and even beyond. The past few years have seen either the upper high
centered directly over us, or weak westerly flow bringing in hot,
dry air causing oppressive heat and no rainfall. We don`t have much
rain in the short term forecast, but the moist air is being lifted
by daytime heating and mountain orographics creating isolated
showers in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains. An upper level low
moving across the Central Rockies will help increase and spread some
of the showers from the Guadalupes and Sangre de Cristos east into
Eddy and Lea counties.

More moisture means it is harder to cool down at night so expect
lows to be slightly above normal. Lows both tonight and tomorrow
night will be in the 70s everywhere except for some 60s in the
mountains and northern Lea County. Temperatures tomorrow will be
near normal with highs in the 90s in the Permian Basin and mountains
with 100s in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

After a weak trough departs the region on Saturday, the upper level
pattern devolves into rather stagnant flow with only a scraping
influence from upper level ridging nosing out of northern Mexico.
The result will be marginally above average temperatures but not
overly hot with KMAF still looking to fend off triple digit high
temperatures in the long term. The hottest temperatures will be
found in the river valleys with heat headlines possible each
afternoon through Tuesday. With the summertime pattern maintaining
modest low level moisture, diurnally driven storms are possible
across the Davis Mountains each afternoon through Wednesday.

A very welcome pattern change featuring less hot weather and much
higher moisture remains possible as we enter the middle part of the
week. A strong and dominant ridge setup across the eastern CONUS
helps guide an inverted trough onshore in the western Gulf and into
Texas for Wednesday into Thursday. While there remains a great deal
of uncertainty in the timing of this trough and how far north it can
extend, what is more certain is high temperatures only in the upper
80s for most on Thursday/Friday. The increased moisture associated
with the trough will certainly aid in an increase in coverage for
diurnal storms, but the chance for more widespread rainfall will
greatly depend on the timing/strength of the inverted trough. For
what it is worth, global models and ensembles are indicating
somewhat good agreement for PWAT values of 1.5" to even 1.75" which
would be well over the 90th percentile for mid-June. Needless to
say, we will surely have some good moisture to work with, but the
question remains if we will be gifted any synoptic assistance to do
anything with it. Stay tuned for details in the coming days...

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions will remain this TAF period. Isolated TS will form
in the Guadalupe Mountains and push east into Eddy County
potentially affecting CNM. Uncertainty is too high to include in
the TAF but TS will probably be close enough that if not on
station then it will impact local flying operations. Modest and
gusty southeast winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  98  74 100 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                 74 102  70 106 /  20  10  10   0
Dryden                   77 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 102  74 104 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  97  69  97 /  30   0  10   0
Hobbs                    70  98  69 101 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    64  97  62  99 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  74  99 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   75  98  74  99 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     77 103  75 105 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe
     and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10