023
FXUS64 KMAF 190509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VIS and IR SAT show scattered clouds over central into northern
Permian Basin, but otherwise mostly clear skies. A dryline is
located along far western portions of SW TX. This surface feature
will be the focus of possible convection developing today. Aloft, a
trough will continue to be positioned north of the area, providing
deep layer shear and instability for storms forming from heating of
elevated terrain. Showers and storms may develop near the Davis
Mountains as well as the Upper Trans Pecos and northwestern Permian
Basin. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, 90s for most
places, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digit heat along the
Rio Grande in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. Storms should move
northeast into tonight, with southeasterly flow maintaining dew
point temperatures in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions, and lows
falling into the 60s, 70s and above most of the Permian Basin,
Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande.
Highs tomorrow will be even warmer tomorrow as a ridge over the
southern CONUS amplifies, with mid to upper 90s most places, 80s
in highest elevations, and triple digit heat along the Rio Grande
in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. With continued southeasterly
surface winds advecting in warm, humid air, lows Thursday night
will again be warmer than average and in the 60s and 70s for most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The evolution of the potent short wave trough/low over the desert
Southwest will drive the long-term portion of this forecast.
Friday and Saturday look to be the warmest days under
southwesterly flow aloft, with highs in the mid 80s at higher
elevations to near 108 at Rio Grande Village and lows generally in
the mid 50s to the lower 70s. As the upper short wave trough/low
(depending on what cluster and/or model you believe) ejects out
over the central and southern Plains Saturday, lee cyclogenesis
begins to crank up over southeastern CO. This will in turn drive a
dryline/surface trough into the CWA Saturday afternoon. While
better upper-level dynamical forcing, shear, and thermodynamics
will exist from the Panhandles south to the South Plains, there is
a small amount (< 30 percent confidence) of overlap in the
thermo/kinematic phase space across the northern third of the CWA
to be concerned. In plain English, this means that while there`s a
small (< 25 percent) coverage of thunderstorms forecast from
southeastern New Mexico across the northern Permian Basin Saturday
afternoon and evening (probably overdone somewhat given
uncertainty in the placement of the dryline), there`s a fairly
high (< 70 percent) conditional threat of wind gusts approaching
severe limits with any convection that does become established.
There is also the attendant lightning threat to consider. Those
with outdoor plans Saturday afternoon and evening are advised to
keep abreast of the latest forecasts and trends as this situation
unfolds. Stay tuned.

The dryline should be overtaken by a Pacific cold front early
Sunday  morning, followed later Sunday morning by a (likely
convectively enhanced) cold front. This secondary front will serve
two purposes. First will be knocking temperatures down to around
five degrees above normal Sunday. The second will be an increase
in precipitation chances north of the cold front as an upslope
flow regime becomes established. Clouds, moisture, and a
smattering of PoPs early next week will knock temperatures down
even further, back to around normal for the third week of
September. Not a bad start for the first full week of fall (for
those keeping score at home, the real start of autumn will occur
on Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 12:43 UTC). -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR continues through the period. Mainly southeasterly winds
overnight. Gusts picking back up during the day today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               96  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  70  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   96  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  88  67 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                    96  68  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    93  63  92  64 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     96  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   96  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...93