219
FXUS64 KMAF 181953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
253 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VIS and IR SAT show scattered clouds over central into northern
Permian Basin, but otherwise mostly clear skies. A dryline is
located along far western portions of SW TX. This surface feature
will be the focus of possible convection developing today. Aloft, a
trough will continue to be positioned north of the area, providing
deep layer shear and instability for storms forming from heating of
elevated terrain. Showers and storms may develop near the Davis
Mountains as well as the Upper Trans Pecos and northwestern Permian
Basin. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, 90s for most
places, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digit heat along the
Rio Grande in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. Storms should move
northeast into tonight, with southeasterly flow maintaining dew
point temperatures in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions, and lows
falling into the 60s, 70s and above most of the Permian Basin,
Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande.
Highs tomorrow will be even warmer tomorrow as a ridge over the
southern CONUS amplifies, with mid to upper 90s most places, 80s
in highest elevations, and triple digit heat along the Rio Grande
in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. With continued southeasterly
surface winds advecting in warm, humid air, lows Thursday night
will again be warmer than average and in the 60s and 70s for most
places.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The evolution of the potent short wave trough/low over the desert
Southwest will drive the long-term portion of this forecast. Friday
and Saturday look to be the warmest days under southwesterly flow
aloft, with highs in the mid 80s at higher elevations to near 108 at
Rio Grande Village and lows generally in the mid 50s to the lower
70s. As the upper short wave trough/low (depending on what cluster
and/or model you believe) ejects out over the central and southern
Plains Saturday, lee cyclogenesis begins to crank up over
southeastern CO. This will in turn drive a dryline/surface trough
into the CWA Saturday afternoon. While better upper-level dynamical
forcing, shear, and thermodynamics will exist from the Panhandles
south to the South Plains, there is a small amount (< 30 percent
confidence) of overlap in the thermo/kinematic phase space across
the northern third of the CWA to be concerned. In plain English,
this means that while there`s a small (< 25 percent) coverage of
thunderstorms forecast from southeastern New Mexico across the
northern Permian Basin Saturday afternoon and evening (probably
overdone somewhat given uncertainty in the placement of the
dryline), there`s a fairly high (< 70 percent) conditional threat of
wind gusts approaching severe limits with any convection that does
become established. There is also the attendant lightning threat to
consider. Those with outdoor plans Saturday afternoon and evening
are advised to keep abreast of the latest forecasts and trends as
this situation unfolds. Stay tuned.

The dryline should be overtaken by a Pacific cold front early Sunday
morning, followed later Sunday morning by a (likely convectively
enhanced) cold front. This secondary front will serve two purposes.
First will be knocking temperatures down to around five degrees
above normal Sunday. The second will be an increase in precipitation
chances north of the cold front as an upslope flow regime becomes
established. Clouds, moisture, and a smattering of PoPs early next
week will knock temperatures down even further, back to around
normal for the third week of September. Not a bad start for the
first full week of fall (for those keeping score at home, the real
start of autumn will occur on Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 12:43
UTC). -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers and storms will be possible from 19Z into 01Z today over
terminals near the Davis Mountains and possibly into the Upper
Trans Pecos and northwestern Permian Basin. Highest chance will
near the Davis Mountains. Main risk in strongest storms is gusty
winds and some hail. Winds will decrease by 12Z Wednesday at FST
and 06Z-08Z Wednesday at other terminals, but remain out out of
the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   73  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  98  70  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  90  69  88 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    68  96  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    64  93  63  92 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  96  71  93 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  96  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     74  99  72  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...94