404
FXUS64 KMAF 211119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows a large upper level low over the
California/Arizona border. The low will move east today with strongly
divergent flow ahead of the low situated over eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this afternoon and evening. Conditions will be
favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop with CAPE values
increasing from 24 hours ago and are now above 1500J/Kg. Forecast
soundings show moderate lapse rates so the CAPE is tall and
skinny, but 0-6km shear still supports a large hail/damaging wind
threat. The presence of the low may allow convection to persist
well after sunset and possibly even after midnight.

Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree
or two cooler due to increased cloud cover during the afternoon.
Tonight should be the last night for lows in the 70s for most
locations before a cold front moves into the area Sunday. The low
pressure system over the Rockies moves into the Central Plains
pushing a cold front south that reaches the I-20 corridor during
the afternoon and quickly pushes into the Big Bend overnight.
Additional rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage,
heaviest rainfall will be along the front transitioning to a
lighter, stratiform rain behind the front.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Surface high pressure builds in Monday behind the front
continuing the falling temperature trend as highs hold in the 70s.
The departing low in the Great Plains allows an amplified ridge
to develop over the western United States. Northerly flow sets up
over the Great Plains and models are getting into agreement that a
trough will drop south and move across the CWA on Tuesday though
there remains some uncertainty in the strength and timing. A
stronger trough or even upper low could provide enough lift for
scattered showers with moderate rainfall of a quarter of an inch
or greater. The transitional seasons historically give us our
highest rainfall totals so hopefully we will get some good
rainfall even if low temperatures are cooling down and getting
close to ending the growing season for eastern New Mexico and West
Texas. A reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures is expected
Wednesday before the western U.S. ridge migrates east and brings
temps back up to near normal and ends rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current satellite shows CIGs BKN015-025 developing south of MAF.
These CIGs should reach MAF/HOB in the next couple of hours and
persist for 2-4 hours before dissipating. Other TAF sites should
remain VFR. TS will develop after 18Z with some becoming severe.
Have placed in the CNM/HOB TAFs where confidence is highest but
all of the other TAF locations could also see TS and will closely
monitor. TS will end by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  74  85  58 /  10  10  70  70
Carlsbad                 93  64  84  57 /  40  20  10  20
Dryden                   95  74  92  68 /   0  10  20  50
Fort Stockton            95  71  89  61 /  20  20  40  60
Guadalupe Pass           86  61  80  55 /  30  10  10  20
Hobbs                    90  66  81  53 /  40  40  30  20
Marfa                    92  63  86  58 /  30  30  30  40
Midland Intl Airport     92  72  85  58 /  10  20  60  60
Odessa                   92  73  85  59 /  10  20  60  60
Wink                     96  72  90  61 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10