Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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475 FXUS64 KMAF 160439 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1139 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 There is no longer any deep convection with the remnants of Ileana in the Gulf of California off the Mexican coast and it is reflected in much less cloud cover seen today than yesterday over West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. This is allowing temperatures to heat up and highs should reach into the 90s everywhere but the mountains this afternoon. Much the same is expected tomorrow though models are showing a little more low level moisture reaching our CWA. This will translate to increased low level clouds holding temps a couple of degrees cooler than today with isolated showers developing in the Davis Mountains. Lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The weather pattern remains rather quiet through much of the week. A strong blocking pattern has taken shape with a nearly stationary upper-high near the Great Lakes. Milder ridging remains over the southern Great Plains with persistent troughing over the western CONUS. Tuesday afternoon brings a little bit to talk about as a shortwave pivots through the larger scale western CONUS trough. This feature brings modest ascent and surface convergence to the western mountains and Southeast New Mexico. This should allow at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Temperatures remain above normal in the upper 80s and low 90s for the bulk of the area. Overnight temperatures will be mild with persistent southeasterly winds, keeping most in the upper 60s and the low 70s. These temperatures remain much the same on Thursday, though with mostly sunny skies and no rain expected. A pattern shift appears likely to take place by the end of the week into next weekend. A second shortwave digs into the Four Corners region and begins to slowly translate east late Friday. This may set up widespread thunderstorms Friday afternoon. As this trough moves into the central Great Plains during the weekend, a cold front dives south behind it. This not only brings the potential for continued rain chances this weekend, but a return of cooler temperatures. The exact timing of the cold front and coverage of any showers and thunderstorms remains a bit uncertain at this time, but ensembles remain consistent in this general pattern for the weekend. Stay tuned! -Chehak && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at times in places during the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temps too high for cu in the northeast, whereas development is likely farther southwest late morning/early afternoon, w/bases starting ~ 4.5-9 kft AGL. No convection expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 65 90 68 93 / 0 0 10 20 Dryden 68 90 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 83 65 85 / 0 10 10 20 Hobbs 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 59 87 62 89 / 0 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 67 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 68 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 68 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44