797
FXUS64 KMAF 201708
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1208 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Much of the area will remain under the influence of high pressure
over central Texas today. Clear to partly cloudy skies and southerly
winds will send highs into the 90s for all but the higher elevations
in the CWA. A deep upper low over the western United States will
create enough instability in the western fringes of the area that
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from
southeastern New Mexico and into the Big Bend which is the only area
that could see rainfall today.

Things change Saturday as the upper low moves east and closer to New
Mexico and West Texas. Instability, moisture, and shear spread east
creating the potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon and
evening across southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian
Basin. Forecast soundings show that there is a limiting factor in
the form of a stubborn cap that may not erode during the afternoon.
Therefore the threat is conditional...storms should struggle to form
but any that do could become severe with strong winds and large hail
being the primary threats. See the SPC SWODY2 for more information.
Increasing clouds will keep the temperatures down a few degrees
Saturday from today which will be the last above normal temperature
day in the forecast thanks to a pattern shift on Sunday.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

In exciting news for the long term forecast period, rain chances are
expected throughout much of next week. This pattern will be
supported by broad troughing developing across the Great Plains to
the Great Lakes with embedded shortwaves repeatedly moving through
this. The first of these shortwaves is set to move across the Great
Plains into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. This should push a
cold front through the region, this further aides in supporting
rainfall potential, while bringing cooler air into the area.
Forecast guidance begins to differ with the exact evolution of this
weather pattern beyond the initial trough. GFS and GEFS ensembles
keep the pattern more progressive with overall cooler temperatures
and increased rainfall potential. ECMWF and EPS on the other hand,
have a slower pattern with a ridge developing across south Texas.
This solution would keep temperatures a bit warmer with less
rainfall potential. Regardless of the exact evolution, a much cooler
and wetter pattern is expected compared to the last week or so. Each
day can expect temperatures near to slightly below normal with
periodic rainfall chances, especially during the afternoon hours.
Potential rainfall in the forecast always remains a welcomed sight.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail most terminals for the next 24 hours
in return flow, gusty at times during the afternoon. Patchy
stratus is anticipated Saturday morning, w/brief MVFR cigs
possible KMAF. Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a cu field
this afternoon KMAF/KFST/KINK, w/bases 5-10 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  93  74  87 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                 71  93  64  86 /  20  30  20  10
Dryden                   73  94  74  92 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton            71  95  72  92 /   0  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           66  86  62  81 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                    69  90  67  84 /  10  30  40  30
Marfa                    64  91  64  88 /   0  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     72  91  73  86 /   0  10  20  40
Odessa                   73  91  74  86 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                     72  96  72  90 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44