Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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050 FXUS64 KMAF 191725 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The next couple days will feel more like summer than early fall. Highs today reach up into the mid to upper 90s for most with the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys reaching the century mark. An upper level ridge remains overhead and this will keep rain chances down with the Davis Mountains seeing a shower or two develop and decay during the afternoon. Continued southeasterly and southerly flow will keep the area warm overnight with most in the upper 60s to low 70s. Friday is similar to today, but temperatures end up a degree or two cooler as the upper level ridge shifts to the east slightly. An upper low begins to impinge on the ridge and rain chances tick upwards across the western fringes of the CWA. ANy activity that does develop will be isolated in nature. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For those who like cooler weather, it`s still on the way. To what extent is the question, as model solutions diverge considerably early in the long term. Saturday, the upper trough is forecast to eject to the Four Corners by 00Z Sunday, resulting in progressive southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This feature will push a Pac front into Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of Texas to the south, but it won`t get any farther east than that. Models develop convection along the front/dryline during the afternoon. Models continue developing 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear over the northwest half of the CWA Saturday afternoon ahead of the trough, but better mid-level lapse rates supporting of large hail remain to the north and west. However, forecast soundings continue to depict dcapes approaching 1500 J/kg and dry subcloud layers/inverted-V signatures, so at least an isolated damaging wind threat cannot be ruled out. Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended forecast, w/highs topping out ~ 8-10 F above normal. Sunday, the trough further ejects up into the Central Plains, pushing the Pac front/dryline a little farther east into the CWA and orienting it more SW-NE. At the same time, a cold front will intrude upon the area, but when it arrives and how far south it gets is a crapshoot. The CMC is faster w/this feature than the GFS/ECMWF, both of which lag behind the NBM solution. Diurnal heating may slow it up, as well. Convection is possible along/east of the Pac front/dryline, and this may help move the front south and negate heating. LREH spreads remain large. At any rate, thicknesses plunge, and highs could be within a couple of degrees of normal most locations before the afternoon is out. Monday, zonal flow sets in over the region as the trough ejects up towards the Great Lakes. The front is forecast to be roughly along I-10, although models continue to disagree on this. This will continue to be a focus for at least a chance of convection. Temperatures will be downright cool and below normal most locations...around 5-7 F cooler than Sunday. Tuesday, return flow increases and temperatures recover somewhat, but this will be ephemeral as a secondary trough arrives, complete with a cold front Tuesday night. If this pans out, Wednesday will be the coolest day this forecast as highs average ~ 3-5 F below normal. Rain chances ramp up area-wide Tuesday/Wednesday w/the arrival of the secondary trough/front. Unfortunately, everything from around Sunday on should be taken w/a grain of salt and subject to (likely) change, as there remains a great degree of uncertainty among the long-range models, and confidence remains low. This is the status quo for this time of year and the change of seasons. Forecast temperatures and rain chances are well within what`s normal, however. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will be elevated and intermittently gusty this afternoon and evening at West Texas terminals, with gusts to 20-25kt possible. Gusts will largely diminish prior to 20/06Z, though FST will likely see gusts through daybreak. There is a low (10%) probability of showers and thunderstorms to the west of FST and south of PEQ this afternoon, with no impacts expected at the terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 96 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 71 97 70 94 / 0 10 10 20 Dryden 73 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 91 65 85 / 0 10 10 10 Hobbs 68 94 68 91 / 0 0 0 20 Marfa 59 92 61 91 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 72 95 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 72 95 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...84