Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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661 FXUS64 KMAF 172319 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 619 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Visible satellite shows numerous patches of cumulus have developed in the moist sector and along the dryline found along the TX/NM state line. A few of these are anticipated to develop into thunderstorms this afternoon, but will be very isolated in nature given subsidence induced capping. Any storms that get going today will have 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE and modest shear (induced by a strong LLJ) to work off of but CAMs indicate they won`t be very numerous or very long lived with an unsurprising local maxima of PoP around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. However, some storms could be severe with strong winds and hail being the main concerns. Heat is the other main headline today, especially along and southwest of the Pecos River with many spots well into the triple digits. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas this afternoon. A very strong LLJ is contributing to elevated, gusty winds this afternoon that are set to linger through the overnight hours tonight. Moving into Tuesday, the ridge axis that has been nosing out of northern Mexico weakens and backs off a bit as a large tropical disturbance approaches the western Gulf of Mexico. As this feature noses westward tomorrow, the low level thermal ridge is nudged westward as well, helping temperatures stay a few degrees cooler than today. Even still, the Davis Mountains and Big Bend are still Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon, but given the marginal exceedance of criteria and the current advisory in effect for today, will leave the issuance of any necessary headlines for the next update this evening/tonight. Aside from the heat, a stray afternoon storm or two is possible once again off the Davis Mountains. No severe weather is expected with any storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Models are on track showing the ridge to the east flattening out as a tropical system pushes west from the Gulf of Mexico. At this time it is still unclear whether this system will be just a broad area of low pressure or tighten and intensify into a rotating tropical cyclone. Either way, increased moisture and rain chances are on tap from Tuesday night into Friday night. The position and strength of the ridge will determine just how much moisture is able to advect into the area. Highest rainfall amounts still look to be along and south of the I-10 corridor, but location and extent of highest rainfall amounts is still uncertain at this time. ECMWF and ENS ensemble show lower rainfall amounts with most of the area not seeing above 1.00 inch, compared to the GFS and GEFS ensembles which show amounts closer to 1.00 inch for western and northwestern regions and between 1.00 and 2.00 inches for the eastern Permian Basin into eastern parts of the Stockton Plateau, with 2.00 to 2.50 inches over Terrell County. Given anomalously high PWATs, especially to the east of our CWA, we cannot rule out higher rainfall amounts than currently forecast. However, cooler and drier air in mid-level capping aloft may limit amount of convectively driven heavy rain, especially over the SE NM plains. Increased clouds and rain chances will mean temperatures much cooler than this past weekend and early this week. On Wednesday highs will only reach the upper 80s over easternmost regions, with 90s replacing areas that have seen triple digits the last few days, and triple digits confined to regions right along the Rio Grande in southern Brewster County and southwestern Presidio County. Coolest temperatures are likely on Thursday as the most widespread rain chances and cloud cover will be present, with most locations 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year and not reaching the 90s, including most places along the Rio Grande. Rain chances and low cloud cover will begin to dissipate Friday into Saturday as the tropical disturbance moves off to the west and northwest of the area, with widespread highs in the 80s on Friday, and highs in the mid 80s to 90s for the area on Saturday. With increased sunshine, highs over most of the area will once again reach into the 90s, 80s in the higher elevations, by Sunday into next Monday. Lows throughout the period will be slightly "cooler" than this past weekend after Tuesday night, but remain warmer than average for mid June, with lows only falling into the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Thunderstorms ongoing in the vicinity of FST at issuance may impact the terminal for the first hour or two of the period, resulting in erratic gusty winds, lightning, and brief MVFR visibility in heavy rain. Elsewhere, aside from showers developing near HOB, impacts from TS are not currently expected. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storms, with the exception of MAF, where MVFR ceilings look to develop around 10Z. These ceilings should improve to VFR by around 16Z, with VFR conditions continuing thereafter. Winds will remain elevated and at least intermittently gusty out of the SE through the period, though may be a bit more variable at CNM, especially tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 98 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 103 72 94 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 75 97 73 90 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 75 99 72 92 / 20 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 94 67 87 / 0 0 10 20 Hobbs 70 100 69 90 / 10 0 10 0 Marfa 64 98 62 92 / 10 10 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 96 72 90 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 75 96 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 77 102 75 95 / 10 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...84