642
FXUS64 KMAF 221752
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1252 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Radar this morning shows convection has dissipated across the area.
The cap held south of I-10/20 yesterday so severe weather was
confined mainly to the SPC slight risk area of southeastern New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. The upper low that
caused the storms is now in the central Rockies and will move into
the Plains later today sending a cold front south. Storms will
again develop today, mainly along and ahead of the front and the
progress of the front will be crucial in determining where
convection will be. Fronts tend to move slower in the daytime so
it is more likely that models have a good handle on this frontal
timing which is southeastern New Mexico by sunrise, I-20 by noon,
and I- 10/the Big Bend before sunset. This confines the highest
rain chances south of I-20, mainly from Big Lake to Alpine. A few
storms could become severe but the threat is lower than we saw
yesterday due to increasing stability from the departing upper
low. There may be some light rain or drizzle developing overnight
behind the front in the Permian Basin but rainfall amounts if any
should only be a few hundredths of an inch.

Cold air advection and clouds behind the front may create a sharp
temperature contrast between southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Basin with areas farther south. MAV/MET guidance is showing
temps in Eddy and Lea counties holding in the 60s and that seems
entirely reasonable where areas ahead of the front will easily reach
the 80s and 90s this afternoon. Lower dewpoints and modest cool air
advection help lows drop into the 50s and low 60s tonight and
lingering clouds will allow for a nice fall-like Monday with highs
only in the 70s. Low rain chances remain along the I-10 corridor on
Monday but any rainfall amounts will be very light.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tuesday and Wednesday maintain the pattern of cooler temperatures
and continued rain chances across the area. A deepening trough is
expected to extend from the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains
through the beginning of the period. This deepening system should
send a reinforcing cold front through the region late Tuesday to
early Wednesday. With this cold front and broad trough, continued
rain chances are expected as broad ascent is maintained across the
region. The best chance of rain is going to be focused nearest to
and just behind the frontal boundary as it moves south through the
region. Once this front clears the area to the south late in the day
on Wednesday, a gradual end to precipitation is anticipated.
Overall, temperatures Tuesday should be just a tad below normal
across the region before falling further below normal on Wednesday
behind the cold front.

Thursday onwards sees another stagnant pattern take shape across the
CONUS. A cutoff-low is expected to develop over the Southeast with a
building ridge near the Four Corners. This maintains dry northwest
flow aloft over the southern Great Plains, keeping things dry.
Despite the building ridge over the Four Corners, temperatures
should remain near to slightly below normal as surface high pressure
is maintained across the Great Plains. While the drier weather is a
bummer, the continued fall-like temperatures are very much welcomed.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

MVFR ceilings persist at issuance for all but MAF and PEQ, though
all terminals are expected to see at least a few hours of VFR
conditions this afternoon into early this evening. However, low
ceilings return quickly between 00Z-06Z, potentially holding off
for FST and CNM until 08Z-10Z, with a medium to high potential
(50-75%) of IFR ceilings at MAF and FST by daybreak. Low ceilings
will persist thereafter through the end of the period, along with
periods of MVFR visibility in drizzle/fog, especially for eastern
terminals. SHRA has developed east of HOB and north of MAF, with
increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon onward.
However, low confidence in timing/location precludes mention at
this time, thus will monitor and amend as needed. Winds will shift
to the north and northeast at all terminals, with gusts to around
20-25kt this afternoon and early evening, becoming light tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  74  61  85 /  70  30  30  40
Carlsbad                 55  80  59  85 /  10  10  10  40
Dryden                   67  81  66  86 /  50  30  10  30
Fort Stockton            60  74  62  85 /  50  30  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           52  74  59  78 /  10  20  10  30
Hobbs                    54  76  58  83 /  10  10  10  40
Marfa                    57  75  55  81 /  20  30  40  50
Midland Intl Airport     58  73  60  84 /  60  30  30  40
Odessa                   59  74  62  84 /  50  30  30  40
Wink                     61  78  62  87 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...84