Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
953 FXUS64 KMAF 172336 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 636 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VIS and IR SAT show mostly clear skies with clouds over the Davis Mountains into SE NM plains streaming north in return flow, with the clouds indicating low level moisture being advected along a weak surface trough/dryline over far W TX. An upper level trough located over the Great Basin will develop farther to the northeast over the northern Rockies. With closer proximity of the trough, shear will increase this afternoon for western portions of the area. Model soundings show long hodographs and an inverted-v shape, indicating that the strongest storms that develop could very well contain damaging winds. SPC indicates marginal risk farther to the northwest of the CWA, so while strong storms are possible, widespread severe weather is not expected. CAMs indicate storms developing this afternoon and continuing into tonight as they move east. East of the TX/NM border, storm chances decrease significantly, especially given the less favorable thermodynamic environment and loss of daytime heating by the time storms move farther east. Highs today rise into the 90s, 80s over higher elevations, and a triple digits right along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Tonight lows remain above average, only falling into the 70s and above for most of the Permian Basin and Rio Grande and into the 60s elsewhere. Scattered high clouds and southeasterly surface winds will both limit radiational cooling and keep dew point temperatures in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions. Wednesday, the trough will be positioned farther northward, with decreased shear leading to less favorable conditions for storm updraft organization and maintenance. However, FV3 and WRF are showing storms moving northeast from the Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon, with FV3 showing wider coverage and greater intensity of discrete storms. The SPC has a marginal risk well to the northeast of the CWA over the TX PH on Wednesday, but it is not of the question that strong storms will again be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening over portions of the area. Highs will be similar to Tuesday, with lows Wednesday night slightly warmer than tonight as a result of longer duration of southeast winds advecting in warm, humid air. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The long term forecast remains on track as discussed over the last several days. The large western CONUS trough is expected to transition into a more pronounced shortwave that begins to translate east and across the central CONUS by the weekend. Thursday serves as a brief lull before this weather system arrives. Temperatures will be relatively hot and well into the 90s for most with low 100s through portions of the river valleys under sunny skies. As the shortwave trough enters the Four Corners region, lee troughing develops ahead of it across the high plains. This sets up a mild start to Friday with moist, return flow keeping temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s for many. On the plus side, the approaching trough should allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms across western portions of the area by afternoon, where proximity to the trough and orographic features provide the greatest likelihood of convective development. Temperatures remain nearly identical Friday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. Heights begin to fall as we head into Saturday as the shortwave trough begins to move across the Colorado/New Mexico border. With closer proximity to the trough, much of the area can expect at least a slight chance of thunderstorms alongside slightly cooler temperatures. Once the trough ejects across the Great Plains on Sunday, a cold front is set to move through the region. Unfortunately, drier continental air with this front should end thunderstorm chances. On the bright side, temperatures are expected to return to near normal by Sunday and even slightly below normal to start the new week. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The main concerns this forecast period are thunderstorms early this evening, and another round of thunderstorms after 19Z Wednesday. Currently, have maintained VCTS mention for HOB through 03Z, with a storm to the west of the terminal that could produce lightning strikes and erratic gusty winds, with gusty winds and blowing dust also possible along associated outflow boundaries. Storms this evening will weaken after sunset, and despite additional storms possible Wednesday afternoon, low probability and uncertainty in timing precludes mention at any terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with elevated/gusty southerly to southeasterly winds this evening becoming light after 06Z, with intermittent gusts returning after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 67 95 69 96 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 72 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 96 71 97 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 65 88 67 89 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 67 94 68 94 / 20 10 0 0 Marfa 65 91 64 92 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 71 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 94 73 95 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 73 98 74 99 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...84