863
FXUS64 KMAF 230524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

The well anticipated cold front has arrived into the Permian Basin
early this afternoon. Temperatures behind the front should be a
good 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday as a result. 80s and lower
90s are expected across most of the Permian Basin and southeast
New Mexico. Elsewhere, it remains hot with upper 90s and 100s.
Heat Advisories remain for Brewster County into the Davis and
Chinati Mountains with the continued heat. Currently, the front
has stalled along northern portions of Upton and Reagan Counties
with an intersection with the dryline extending south through
eastern Pecos and western Terrel Counties. A thunderstorm or two
is expected ahead of these features. Any thunderstorms that
develop may become severe with a large hail and damaging wind
threat. Thankfully, this activity is expected to be short-lived as
things move southeast and out of our area soon after. The cold
front clears the area tonight and everyone can expect a bit cooler
temperatures as a result. Mainly in the 60s with a few 50s in the
higher elevations. After this point, a weak trough passing to our
north does little for our temperatures. Widespread 90s and low
100s are likely with 110s in the Big Bend. With this in mind, Heat
Advisories are needed once again for Brewster County into the
Davis and Chinati Mountains with the one addition of Terrell
County. It will be dry and breezy with the passing trough,
heightening fire weather concerns. See the Fire Weather Discussion
below for full details. Temperatures will be similar to tonight
for your Friday morning.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

By Friday, the warm-up will be well underway, and we`ll once again
find ourselves in what feels like the doldrums of summer through
the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Persistent quasi-zonal flow
aloft as well as compressional downsloping surface flow will see
temperatures in the middle 90s to lower 100s and lows in the 60s
for most each day through Monday. The hottest temperatures
continue to be found across the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and
particularly the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, where highs around
110F-115F each day will yield continued Heat Advisory conditions
through the holiday. Heat Advisory conditions are also possible,
at least intermittently, in the mountain areas of Southwest Texas
and perhaps into Terrell County through the weekend, though at
this time, most other locations look to remain below criteria.
But, no matter how you cut it, the holiday weekend will be hot,
sunny, and dry areawide.

Early next week, a pattern change may bring us some relief as a
trough is progged to move across the northern tier of the CONUS,
deepening as it reaches the Upper Midwest. This would result in an
amplification of the upper pattern with ridging developing to the
west in response to the deepening trough to the east, allowing for
a slow, gradual cooling trend with potential rain chances
returning to the forecast for portions of the area on Tuesday.
But, a lot can change between now and then, so overall, hot and
dry will continue to be the rule as we head toward the beginning
of climatological summer on June 1st.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR with clearing skies. Gusty west winds at most locations this
afternoon, ending around sunset. Winds remain mainly westerly
through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon
across the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas, where intermittently breezy conditions will allow for near
critical and localized critical fire weather conditions to develop
prior to sunset. Fire weather concerns increase on Thursday as
the hot and dry conditions not only persist, but worsen as
widespread RHs under 5 percent develop across much of the region
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Deep mixing will
facilitate stronger winds on Thursday than we`ve seen in recent
days, especially across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent
areas. Of additional concern is the state of fuels west of the
Pecos River, where ERCs are forecast to eclipse the 97th
percentile, and where locations from Chaves County and the
Sacramento Foothills south across Culberson County have largely
missed out on any beneficial rainfall the past few months. Thus,
the Fire Weather Watch for the aforementioned area has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Thursday afternoon. The hot and
dry conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, though
lighter winds on Friday should mitigate concerns somewhat, with
another Fire Danger Statement likely needed for the same areas. A
passing shortwave Saturday looks to result in another uptick in
winds across the northwest, thus, Saturday looks to be the next
candidate for critical fire weather/Red Flag Warning conditions,
before concerns are somewhat abated by lighter winds and subtly
cooling temperatures early next week. Storm chances this afternoon
are focused across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, where greenup has greatly mitigated fire weather concerns,
with the next round of rain not expected until next Tuesday, at
the earliest.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  61  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  63  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  105  69 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           101  65  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    93  59  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    91  51  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  62  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   97  64  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     99  61  98  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves
     Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...88