093
FXUS64 KMAF 122310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An upper level ridge from northern Mexico stretching north into New
Mexico will remain in place over the short term forecast period.
Increasing subsidence will decrease cloud cover and increase
temperatures sending highs into the triple digits for most
locations. Southeast winds will advect just enough moisture into the
mountains that a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may form
though any accumulations would be light. No rain is expected
elsewhere.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Friday morning a large upper level ridge will be situated over
Texas while a upper low over Baja California will transition into
an open shortwave trough, moving up into the Desert Southwest. Our
warm up on Friday will be a bit subdued as the shortwave moves
across New Mexico, flattening the ridge, and "cooling"
temperatures down to the mid to upper 90s for most. Recent model
runs have pushed the shortwave further north, shunting the best
precipitation chances along with it into northern New Mexico and
Colorado. Still, given model disagreement with the progression of
this shortwave with each run, have elected to maintain some POPs
across the higher terrain and parts of New Mexico for Friday
afternoon and evening. As the shortwave moves up and out on
Saturday, ridging will build back in and a thermal ridge axis
will set up over far West Texas, bumping 850mb temps to the 33-35C
across the west and 27-30C across the east. Southwesterly flow
returns and subsidence will continue to tick up through the end of
the weekend, and the River Valleys reach 110+ Sunday afternoon.
Beyond Sunday, the pattern will remain fairly stagnate with
above- normal temperatures and dry conditions continuing into mid
week.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR continues with southeast winds around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 100  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 105  74 101 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   75 100  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 102  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           72  97  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
Hobbs                    69 101  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  98  61  96 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     72  99  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74 100  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75 105  75 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Thursday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio
     Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...29