676
FXUS64 KMAF 041211
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
711 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The excessive heat worsens further this afternoon. The mid-level
ridge slides a touch further east, pushing the low-level thermal
ridge over the region. This increases temperatures a couple
degrees areawide. The result will be temperatures in the 100s for
all of the lower elevations, upper 90s over the mountains, and
temperatures well into the 110s in the Big Bend. This excessive
heat necessitates Heat Advisories across the Big Bend, Lower Trans
Pecos, and Mitchell County. While elsewhere may not be under a
Heat Advisory, this heat is going to be hazardous with prolonged
exposure. It will be important to take necessary precautions to
avoid potential heat- related illnesses. It remains dry area-wide
with just passing high clouds for otherwise mostly sunny skies.

Tonight sees surface high pressure slowly move west over the
area, slowly transitioning surface winds from westerly to
easterly. Unfortunately, this moist surface flow is going to
hamper our ability to cool overnight temperatures. Much of the
region remains in the upper 60s and low 70s by Wednesday morning.

Temperatures on Wednesday see little improvement with perhaps a
couple degrees shaved off for areas north of I-10. Another round
of Heat Advisories may once again be needed. The only potential
relief may come to the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains region. As a
weak disturbance rounds the ridge, isolated thunderstorms may
develop with the aide of orographic ascent over these areas. This
could allow for slightly cooler outflow for those lucky enough to
see rain. Otherwise, elsewhere remains dry and very hot.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The long term weather pattern transitions from zonal flow to a
western U.S. ridge pattern. Models are in good agreement that a
ridge will be building near the Four Corners region that will keep
the heat on for eastern New Mexico and West Texas through the end
of the week with highs generally in the upper 90s to low 100s.
There is a quasi-stationary upper low off the Mexico coast that
will send some weak disturbances into far West Texas that may
allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
to form each afternoon. Weak shear should limit severe potential
so hopefully only beneficial rains will be falling for an area
that badly needs it.

There is more uncertainty as we head into early next week. A deep
upper low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front south,
arriving sometime on Sunday. The timing of the front will greatly
affect forecast highs for both Sunday and Monday and any
associated rainfall will affect temps as well. NBM ensemble
guidance is conservative towards any cooling or precipitation with
the front though deterministic guidance shows potential for
greater PoPs and cooling. Will stay with the NBM guidance for this
forecast with a close eye to changes coming next weekend.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR remains for the period. Southwesterly to westerly winds with
occasional gusts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              104  70  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                101  71 101  71 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  106  73 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           105  72 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           91  69  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                   100  67  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    95  61  98  63 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport    103  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  102  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    104  70 103  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Lower Brewster
     County-Mitchell-Pecos-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93