706
FXUS64 KMAF 201732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Most locations saw their first 100 degree temperature of the season
yesterday and will likely see another today. An LLTR will extend
from Mexico across our region north to the Panhandles with 850 mb
temperatures >31C. Similar to yesterday, highs will soar into the
100s across much of the area with the hottest conditions again
along the Rio Grande (~115F). The Heat Advisory has been extended
through today for the Davis and Chisos Mountains and along the Rio
Grande in lower Brewster county. Another mild night is in store
tonight with lows in the 60s/70s. A shortwave will pass well to
our north Tuesday bringing a weak Pacific front through the area.
While it will remain hot, highs will come down a few degrees with
most locations along and north of I-20 avoiding the century mark.
Further south it looks like more of the same and the Heat Advisory
may need to be extended yet another day for the Big Bend. Still
not seeing any chance for rain through the early week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Normally, a "cold front" would be welcome phrase after a period of
unseasonable warm temperatures, but unfortunately this front will be
anything but cold.

A backdoor cold front will shoot down into the Panhandle on
Wednesday, likely reaching the northern CWA by early Wednesday
afternoon. At this point it will be pushed back northward with warm
southwesterly flow winning out, and temperatures across the northern
Permian Basin will only be a few degrees cooler compared to Tuesday,
in the low 90s. Elsewhere, highs in the upper 90s/low 100s will
continue, with 110+ along the Rio Grande where another Heat Advisory
will likely be needed. While the front is pushed out of the region,
a disturbance moving across may be sufficient for a few storms to
develop in the far eastern Permian Basin, but moisture will be the
limiting factor here and storm develop will depend greatly on the
location of the dryline. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with
storms Wednesday afternoon, but both of the global models have
pulled back on precipitation chances in the latest run. Waiting on
better consistency, have maintained at least low POP chances for
both Wednesday and Thursday, but chances seem to dwindling for mid-
week storms.

Weak ridging builds back in Thursday and beyond with a thermal ridge
axis displaced just west of the region. With a similar pattern to
this week, multiple rounds of shortwaves will pass to the north, and
compressional warming with downsloping winds will continue to push
temperatures higher and higher each day, and parts of the Permian
Basin may once again hit the 100s by the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR VIS and CIGs expected throughout TAF period, with increased
high clouds after 21Z. Southwest winds become gusty through 01Z
Tuesday and gustiest for terminals in SE NM plains, where winds
gust above 20kts. Winds become southerly and increase with low-
level jet over SE Permian Basin into MAF and FST starting 05Z
Tuesday and remain gusty into end of period, veering from south to
southwest. Winds at all terminals shift to northwest with passage
of weak Pacific front 09Z-15Z Tuesday, with gusty winds above
20kts CNM and HOB after 17Z into end of period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  99  69  96 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 68  95  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74 103  75 103 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            70 100  70 101 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           67  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  93  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  97  70  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   73  96  70  97 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     68  98  66  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...94