533
FXUS64 KMAF 171736
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures are starting off well below normal this morning
following the severe storms that moved through yesterday.
Unfortunately, it won`t last much past today.

An upper trough will cross overhead today keeping mid level heights
and temperatures lower even with a weak downslope component to the
flow. Highs will top out in the 80s for most locations with 90s
along the Rio Grande. A weak disturbance will round the base of the
upper trough helping to generate a few showers and storms along and
south of the I-10 corridor. Widespread severe weather is not
expected, but some gusty winds and small hail will be possible with
these storms.

Temperatures return closer to normal tonight as winds return to the
south. Mid level ridging quickly builds over the area Saturday as
surface winds become more westerly. Even with the recent rain,
temperatures will respond by climbing to the hottest temperatures we
have seen so far this year. Widespread upper 90s are likely across
much of the Permian Basin with 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande
Rivers. And Saturday is the "cooler" day of the weekend...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Unfortunately, our first hundred degree day in Midland is likely
coming this weekend. Upper level ridging builds in with a thermal
ridge axis setting up over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico,
while strong southerly surface flow helps usher in warmer weather.
Sunny skies and 850mb temps around 32-35C support highs in the 100s
for most by Sunday, with 105+ along the Trans Pecos and 110+ for the
Rio Grande. Don`t expect much of a reprieve overnight as strong
southerly winds maintain lows in the upper 60s to low 70s before
highs soar back above 100 degrees again Monday afternoon. An
approaching upper level trough early Tuesday will tighten the
gradient, and warm downsloping winds may continue the well-above-
normal temperatures for one more day. Things cool down a bit
Wednesday as the trough passes to the north, but we`ll be right back
to above-normal by the end of the week. If the early summer heat
wasn`t bad enough, precipitation chances are practically
nonexistent in the long term.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions with light winds will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  98  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 61  98  62 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63 102  70 105 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  99  66 105 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    58  95  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    53  92  54  96 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  99  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   63  98  68 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60 101  62 106 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...84