349
ACUS11 KWNS 022338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022337
OKZ000-TXZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...Western
Oklahoma...Northwest Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 374...

Valid 022337Z - 030130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across the central Texas Panhandle is
expected to be maintained over the next few hours. The severe threat
will gradually move eastward, and the tornado threat is expected to
increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. As the storms approach the
eastern edge of Tornado Watch 374, a new watch may need to be issued
later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo,
TX shows several supercells located near a north-to-south oriented
dryline across the central Texas Panhandle. To the east of the
dryline, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range.
The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger
instability, and the severe threat is expected to be maintained. The
latest WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km near 50 knots, with a
substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This is
resulting in 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2,
suggesting that the more intense supercells could develop a tornado
threat. The tornado threat will likely become maximized in the 00Z
to 02Z timeframe in the east-central Texas Panhandle and southward
to areas northeast of Lubbock, as the low-level jet strengthens. If
a supercell can turn to the right of the mean flow and become
dominant, then a tornado or two will be likely. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings at Amarillo have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9
C/km. This will support a large hail threat with supercells, and the
more vigorous updrafts could produce hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter. Severe wind gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33050113 33040046 33249980 33689939 35089937 35979938
            36539956 36900002 36920084 36830133 36410182 35620200
            34880214 33960210 33310180 33050113