117
ACUS11 KWNS 021659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021658
TXZ000-NMZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021658Z - 021900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon along and near a
remnant outflow boundary. Large hail (some very large), severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will all be possible.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from the ongoing convection near
the Red River continues south across the southern Texas Panhandle
but is starting to slow. A very moist airmass is in place across
this region, even north of the outflow boundary. SPC mesoanalysis
suggests inhibition has eroded across the region and some convection
has already started to form on the eastern periphery of this outflow
boundary south of Childress. Given the significant moisture, strong
instability, and uncapped airmass thunderstorms may continue to
develop along this outflow boundary which could prompt a watch
relatively soon. However, it is also possible that more
widespread/robust convection may not occur until later this
afternoon as the dryline advances east and the mid-level shortwave
trough, evident on water vapor across New Mexico, overspreads the
Panhandle.

Any storms which develop will likely be supercellular given 30 to 35
knots of effective shear. The extreme instability and steep lapse
rates will support large hail up to the size of baseballs. In
addition, a localized tornado threat may occur near/the outflow
boundary where low-level SRH will be maximized.

A watch will eventually be needed across this region with timing as
the primary uncertainty at this time. Will monitor trends with
ongoing convection along the outflow boundary with watch issuance
likely once a severe threat (greater than isolated) appears
imminent.

..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33919960 33459930 32819918 32500020 32730188 33330273
            33840283 34340300 35230313 35650289 35800199 35230079
            34650013 33919960