497
ACUS11 KWNS 062202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062201
MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY into western CT/MA and
southwest VT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062201Z - 062330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief
tornado could spread eastward into this evening.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection is currently moving across eastern
NY, with a rather prominent mesolow noted northwest of Albany. The
immediate downstream environment remains rather moist and modestly
unstable (MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range), with sufficient
deep-layer shear to support some storm organization. Generally weak
low/midlevel lapse rates have generally limited the severe threat
thus far. However, surface winds remain backed along/east of a
surface trough/weak front, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 is noted
both from objective mesoanalyses and the VWP from KENX.

Given the relatively moist boundary layer and somewhat favorable
low-level shear, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
persistent circulation embedded within the larger storm cluster.
Otherwise, isolated damaging winds remain possible, both with any
stronger bowing segment that can be maintained, and also in the
vicinity of the mesolow where rather strong velocities are noted
from KENX.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41037391 41567382 42507396 42827450 42927463 43857450
            44027328 43557314 42267292 41387301 41177336 41127383
            41037391