107
ACUS11 KWNS 052002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052002
WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...much of central Minnesota into northwestern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052002Z - 052200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue to develop
and overspread the region through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by locally
strong to severe surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level cooling and lift within the exit region of a
seasonably strong (70-90 kt around 500 mb) jet digging across the
northern Great Plains is contributing to steepening
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates spreading east-southeast of the
Red River Valley through much of northern and central Minnesota.
Beneath this regime, a deepening mixed boundary layer remains
sufficiently moist to support CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg, with an
increase in thunderstorm development ongoing in the wake of
preceding thunderstorm activity overspreading the Minnesota
Arrowhead through northwestern Wisconsin vicinity.  As thunderstorms
continue to slowly increase in number and intensify in the peak
afternoon heating, downward mixing of stronger momentum to the
surface will contribute to increasing potential for strong to widely
scattered severe gusts, particularly with storms overspreading
central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin through 22-00Z.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   47189448 46009091 44799147 44679366 45179535 46159662
            47189448