406
ACUS11 KWNS 072040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072040
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast NM...southeast CO...southwest
KS...and the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 072040Z - 072245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe winds and hail
may prompt watch issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased in coverage and
intensity across the southern/central High Plains along/near a
surface trough. A rather hot and well-mixed airmass is present
along/ahead of this activity, as robust daytime heating has allowed
surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and lower 100s.
Severe/damaging winds will probably be the main threat with this
activity as it spreads east-southeastward through the rest of the
afternoon, and continuing into the early evening. Some of these wind
gusts could be significant (75+ mph) given very large
temperature-dewpoint spreads from recent surface observations and
near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through low/mid levels. Stronger
deep-layer shear over southeast CO into southwest KS may support
some threat for a supercell or two, with associated risk for large
hail in addition to the severe/damaging wind threat. Given current
observational trends, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to
address this increasing severe risk.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36650475 37430301 38070174 38070034 37330017 36410061
            35760301 35930429 36210476 36650475