Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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064
ACUS11 KWNS 242058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242058
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-242230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into northern
Mississippi and Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242058Z - 242230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue along an
outflow boundary across portions of the Southeast. Damaging gusts
and hail still appear to be the main threats. Trends continue to be
monitored for the need of a WW issuance pending an increase in
thunderstorm coverage.
DISCUSSION...Discrete transient supercell structures continued to
progress along and north of an outflow boundary left behind by an
MCS from earlier this morning. Surface temperatures have warmed into
the upper 80s F south of the boundary, with MLCAPE increasing to
over 3000 J/kg. Amid this environment, there has been a recent
uptick in the intensity of the storms, with severe hail and damaging
gusts recently reported in Pontotoc County, MS. While hail and wind
gusts of similar caliber may occur over the next few hours, overall
deep-layer ascent remains modest, putting overall storm coverage and
the need of a WW issuance into question. Still, given the uptick in
storm intensity, convective trends are being monitored for the need
of a WW issuance should storms become more abundant.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34909281 35249095 34948972 33968689 33358639 32908677
33008797 33348984 33829126 34209224 34909281