090
ACUS11 KWNS 242019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242019
INZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...central and northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242019Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for localized wind damage via 50-65 mph gusts may
develop across north-central and northern IN during the next few
hours.  The expected severe coverage will likely preclude the need
for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a warm and adequately moist
boundary layer is located over Indiana featuring lower 80s
temperatures and 60-64 deg F dewpoints.  This airmass is immediately
east of a residual gust front/outflow from an earlier MCS that has
progressed eastward and extends from southwestern Lower MI
south-southwestward into east-central IL.  The WSR-88D VAD data from
Syracuse, IN and Indianapolis, IN show relatively weak flow (less
than 20 kt) in the lowest 4-5 km.  Given the moderate instability
but deep-layer shear favoring mainly linear modes/multicells,
expecting a continuation of episodic intensification and weakening
to the more intense multicells over the next few hours across
central and northern IN.  Although marginally severe hail cannot be
ruled out, it seems the greater hazard will be localized gusts
perhaps peaking in the 50-65 mph range.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40188717 41498621 41688587 41668548 41368517 39908582
            39718606 39618653 39818695 40188717