Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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951
ACUS11 KWNS 241717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241717
ALZ000-MSZ000-241845-
Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected...portions of northern and central
Mississippi...northern and central Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241717Z - 241845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...At least isolated to potentially scattered instances of
severe wind or hail may occur with the stronger storms across
portions of the Southeast. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms have recently developed
along the leading edge of outflow and ahead of an MCV from a
dissipating MCS across northern parts of MS and AL. Immediately
ahead of the outflow boundary, strong diurnal heating is supporting
boundary-layer deepening, with agitated CU already developing, and
over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE evident via 17Z mesoanalysis. Over 50 kts of
westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to strong unidirectional speed
shear and modestly curved/elongated hodographs. Multicells should be
the predominant mode of convection, though a transient supercell or
two cannot be ruled out. Severe wind and hail may accompany the
stronger storms. Coverage of severe storms is still somewhat
uncertain, but convective trends are being monitored for the need of
a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34398602 33608543 32848551 32538609 32588760 33068931
33569001 33919028 34279052 34339043 34398602