527
ACUS11 KWNS 240616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240615
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska and north-central
Kansas...eastward to western Iowa and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

Valid 240615Z - 240815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of strong storms continues moving eastward across
eastern Nebraska and north-central Kansas, where severe risk --
primarily in the form of damaging wind gusts -- continues.  New
storms developing east of the convective line bear watching.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-organized line of
convection advancing steadily eastward across eastern Nebraska and
adjacent northern Kansas.  While occasional mesoscale circulations
within the line imply brief tornado potential, the main risk with
this convection remains damaging winds.  Storms are nearing the
southeastern portion of the WW, which will likely prompt new WW
issuance eastward toward/across the Middle Missouri Valley.

In addition, warm-advection-driven convective development is
occurring, from northwestern Iowa southward to northwestern
Missouri.  It remains unclear as to what degree this developing
convection will pose severe risk, given a weakly stable boundary
layer, and associated/elevated nature of the convection.  At this
time, isolated hail appears to be the primary risk, but given the
current trends with respect to the increasing coverage of storms, we
will continue to monitor for potential necessity for WW issuance
well ahead of the Nebraska storms.

..Goss.. 05/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39569891 40319823 41709781 42549707 42999631 42879466
            41979371 40549287 39539314 39329503 39569891