Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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972
ACUS11 KWNS 251604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251603
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251730-
Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into southwestern
Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251603Z - 251730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A locally higher severe threat may accompany a more robust
cluster of thunderstorms moving southeast along the AL/GA border
area. A categorical Slight Risk upgrade is anticipated for an
increased severe wind/hail risk, with convective trends also being
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of strong multicells and perhaps
transient supercells has recently become established in east-central
AL, and is poised to continue tracking southeastward early this
afternoon. These storms are preceded by an unstable airmass (i.e.
MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg), where a modest 500 mb speed max is
also passing by. As such, a locally higher overlap of favorable
buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will promote at least a locally
severe wind and hail threat. In response, a categorical upgrade to
Slight Risk will be made in the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.
Convective trends are also being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending greater storm coverage.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32698620 32748497 32178386 31488332 30898332 30428367
30318433 30568504 31028576 32218635 32698620