381
ACUS11 KWNS 222039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222038
TXZ000-OKZ000-222215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Southwest TX...Central/North-Central TX...Northeast
TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...287...

Valid 222038Z - 222215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286, 287 continues.

SUMMARY...Very large hail from 2-3" remains the primary risk from
southwest Texas across central Texas into northeast Texas. A few
tornadoes are possible as well, particularly across southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell continues over Coleman County
Texas. This storm is the most substantial development within the
very unstable and strongly sheared airmass extending from southwest
TX across central TX into northeast TX. Additional development near
the surface low in the Permian Basin has recently intensified,
acquiring supercellular characteristics as it moved into Sterling
County TX. This storm may begin to interact with outflow from the
Coleman County storm, resulting in some potential for additional
strengthening. Vertical vorticity along this boundary could aid in
tornadogenesis.

Robust updrafts capable of very large hail up to 2-3" remain
possible. The large anvil cast by the Coleman County storm could
have some influence on where this additional initiation occurs,
perhaps shifting the more favorable initiation zone to the edges of
the anvil where differential heating is more likely. Large hail
remains possible with left splits over northwest TX, with at least
some potential for in-situ development along the cold front as well.

..Mosier.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32190117 33069910 33349803 33739637 32959514 31349718
            30910140 32190117