424
ACUS11 KWNS 132004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132004
FLZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 132004Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
through this afternoon along a seabreeze and stationary boundary.
Strong to severe wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph and perhaps a
landspout are possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows deepening
cumulus developing along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. The
latter is further north and draped west to east between Alachua and
Columbia Counties. A few thunderstorms have already developed near
these features as well, and additional diurnal development is
expected. Although deep layer effective shear suggests some updraft
organization may occur, poor mid level lapse rates will keep any
marginally severe hail threat isolated. On the other hand, steep low
level lapse rates/stretching potential and somewhat greater low
level shear over the northern Florida peninsula closer to the
stationary boundary may be sufficient for a brief landspout to occur
with robust updrafts that manage to develop. Localized strong to
severe wind gusts will also be possible with wet microbursts and
merging cells. Given the isolated threat of the severe potential, a
weather watch is not expected at this time.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28648254 28878255 29288283 29798329 30098321 30248305
            30238264 29888199 29728172 29368148 29078117 27518057
            27408116 27238126 26828124 26788160 27208183 28008209
            28648254