Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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675 ACUS11 KWNS 231954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231953 SDZ000-NEZ000-232200- Mesoscale Discussion 0914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Western Nebraska into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 231953Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon for parts of western Nebraska into central South Dakota. Very-large hail will be possible with initial supercells before a transition to a more linear mode. Severe wind gusts will then become the dominant threat. DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to increase along a surface trough/cold front in western Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. With the approach of the shortwave trough now in western/central Wyoming, these trends should continue. Moisture continues to increase ahead of the boundary, particularly into western Nebraska, where a corridor of upper 50s F dewpoints are noted farther southeast in surface observations. Objective mesoanalysis shows decreasing MLCIN. Initiation of storms seems probable in the next 1-3 hours. Storms will initially be supercells capable of very large hail. Upscale growth may occur relatively quickly given the linear forcing and larger T/Td spreads at the surface. Severe wind gusts will become increasing likely as this transition occurs. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40680140 40710163 41450239 41870234 43410129 44180067 44759946 44459861 43219907 41060102 40680140