Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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413 FXUS64 KMEG 131530 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1030 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Another beautiful, though a bit warmer, day is on tap for the Mid-South. A 1016 mb high pressure remains fixed over the region leading to light and variable winds under clear skies. Today`s highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Fog will likely develop in areas along the Tennessee River and low lying areas as skies remain clear and winds go calm overnight. The current forecast package is on track. AEH && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Dry and progressively hotter conditions are expected each day until Sunday. Rain chances return with slightly less hot conditions early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 GOES nighttime satellite depicts clear skies coupled with most observation sites reporting calm winds at this hour. Low dewpoint depressions less than 2 degrees in some areas may allow patchy fog to develop early this morning, especially east of the Mississippi River. This scenario will likely repeat itself for the next several overnight periods as surface high pressure sits over the Mid-South and precludes any substantial wind or cloud cover from developing. The main story of this forecast period is heat ramping up this weekend. Midlevel ridging will start to build over the southeast CONUS on Saturday, trapping a hot air mass in place through Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will jump to the mid 90s and continue climbing into the upper 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints should just barely exceed 70 degrees, so the heat index may nudge into triple digits but not enough to warrant any heat products. This is an unseasonably hot airmass that will leave temperatures 6-7 degrees above normal this weekend. As the midlevel ridge amplifies further and shifts over to the Mid-Atlantic region, southerly flow will make a stark return early next week. This will allow Gulf coast moisture to surge up the Lower MS River Valley and support rain chances around 20-30% on Monday. Though guidance continues to trend southward on the axis of precipitation, moisture will be plentiful and thus diurnally driven convection may pop up in the afternoons any day next week. Unfortunately, the heat looks like it is here to stay in the extended forecast period. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks depict a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures (which is about 90 degrees for mid June). CAD && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Mainly VFR through the period. Some light fog is possible at MKL and TUP late tonight. Light winds will prevail. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...SJM