Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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523 FXUS64 KMEG 172043 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be much less on Tuesday as upper level high pressure builds back west and into the Mid-South. Hot and dry conditions will persist Wednesday through Sunday as strong upper level high pressure remains over the region. High temperatures will soar back into the mid to upper 90s each day. Rain chances look to return early next week as high pressure weakens over the Lower Mississippi Valley. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A tropical-like day across the Mid-South at this hour. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Mississippi River. The latest SPC mesoanalysis reveals near record high PWAT values of 2.2 inches along the Mississippi River. Aloft, GOES-East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a weak shortwave rotating clockwise around the western periphery of the upper level ridge. Several strong storms have occurred this morning and afternoon due to the combination of moderate instability around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and up to 25 knots of bulk shear. Convective activity may hold on for several hours after sunset as the main shortwave lifts out of the region. A few additional strong storms are possible through sunset and an instance or two of minor flooding is also possible. Convective coverage will be much less on Tuesday, as the main upper level ridge begins to retrograde back to the west. Showers and thunderstorms will be mainly confined to areas along and north of I-40 tomorrow morning and afternoon. Thereafter, the ridge of high pressure will strengthen and become nearly centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will soar back into the mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Saturday. With lower humidity in place, heat indices should remain 100F or below. Upper level high pressure looks to finally weaken over the region late in the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely return as early as Sunday as weak troughing builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Uncertainty amplifies early next week as synoptic models are beginning to resolve a potential tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 SHRA/TSRA is expected to continue across the Mid-South through this evening which may produce instances of MVFR CIGS with occasional IFR VIS. Later this evening, as precipitation diminishes across the airspace, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with the potential for shower activity across portions of the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JPR