099
FXUS64 KMEG 121956
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Temperatures will continue to increase day by day, through the
weekend as high pressure remains over the area. Heat indices in the
triple digits will be possible both Saturday and Sunday. Slight,
but brief relief looks to arrive Monday through mid-week as
rainfall chances return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A large 1016 mb high pressure was analyzed extending from the the
Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Appalachian Valley.
An associated thin cirrus deck will continue pushing east with
light and variable winds at the surface. By sundown, this pesky
cirrus deck looks push past our area leaving clear skies and
mostly calm winds across the Mid-South. Fog is likely to develop
overnight in areas along the Tennessee River and in low lying
areas as forecast soundings depict a low-level inversion setting
up over these areas.

Mid-level ridging will continue building across the region leading
to progressively increasing temperatures through the weekend. Heat
indices in the triple digits will be possible both Saturday and
Sunday as forecast dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Sunday is shaping up to be
the hottest day of 2024 as 925 mb temperatures range between
25-28 degrees C across the entire Mid-South. Ensemble members
have a around a 40% chance for areas over northern Mississippi
seeing heat indices >100 degrees F on Saturday and around a 60%
chance on Sunday. A few areas in the Mississippi Delta may reach
heat indices of 105 degrees F, though we are not anticipating a
need for heat products at this time.

Come Monday, continued mid-level ridging begins to shift east, past
our area. As it does so, the ridge looks to broaden as it edges
closer to the east coast. This will create a great environment for
Gulf moisture move its way north, over the Mid-South, increasing our
dewpoints and overall moisture. Rain chances finally return Monday
through mid-week, though we are only carrying 20-30% PoPs to cover
any discrepancy as we are still several days out. This increased
moisture will create a hot and humid end to next week as the CPC 8-
14 day outlook has us above normal heading into the latter part of
June.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist through
the period. Patchy fog is possible towards sunrise at MKL and
TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CJC