Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
186 FXUS62 KMFL 290727 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 327 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 The overall pattern today will be similar to yesterday with broad troughing over the east coast and west-northwest flow aloft prevailing over SFL. At the surface, the synoptic gradient will remain light south of a stalled cold front over Central Florida, favoring a relatively deep inland progression of both sea breezes. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze boundaries with the steering flow generally tracking convection towards the east coast by the late afternoon period. Once again a few stronger multi-cellular storms will be possible with strong winds being the main convective hazard, given the steep low lvl lapse rates and large DCAPE, but locally heavy rainfall and small hail will remain secondary convective hazards. It will remain another hot and humid day (prior to convective initiation) with highs ranging from the low 90s near the immediate coasts to the upper 90s in the Interior, along with widespread peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees. The main change to the setup for Thursday will be the synoptic flow gradually trending more easterly, favoring convective progression towards the Interior and eventually west coast (as opposed to the last few days) Thursday afternoon. Once again gusty winds will remain the main threat with any storms, although a widespread organized severe threat looks unlikely (and any heavy rainfall threat will be tempered by antecedent dry conditions). One impact of the more notable easterly flow will be the start of a slight cooling trend for the east coast, with highs dropping a couple degrees relative to Wednesday (albeit still above normal), although temperatures likely remain similar over the Interior/west coast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 The setup for Friday will be similar to Thursday with light easterly synoptic flow prevailing, favoring the highest rain chances over the Interior and west coast and similar temperatures to Thursday. Heading into the weekend high pressure north of the area will build southward, likely pushing the previously-stalled front through the area as a weak backdoor cold front. This will usher in a shift to a moderate easterly regime Saturday which should persist into the start of the upcoming workweek. A drier (particularly at the mid-lvls) and more stable airmass will filter in behind the boundary which will limit thunderstorm chances (particularly for the east coast), with any rain likely of the shallower quick-moving shower variety. Temperatures will also come down a few degrees with highs in the mid to upper 80s over the east coast, and lower 90s over the Interior and west coast, with dewpoints also coming down a bit to keep heat indices (thankfully) depressed relative to the recent very high values. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Lingering showers around PBI should gradually dissipate during the overnight hours. Mainly VFR should prevail at all terminals through 15Z, then Sub-VFR periods are possible with showers and thunderstorms developing around the Atlantic terminals. Light and variable winds will shift to the SE in the 10-12kt range after 15Z. Stronger gusts will accompany any thunderstorm that affects any of the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Generally light flow will prevail through the mid-week period with marine winds largely being driven by diurnal sea-breeze circulations (i.e. westerly winds over the Gulf and east-southeasterly winds over the Atlantic) and seas remaining 3 feet or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the workweek resulting in periods of locally higher winds and seas. Winds will increase out of the east late this week into the upcoming weekend with increasing seas over the Atlantic waters by the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 77 91 78 / 50 20 30 20 West Kendall 95 74 93 74 / 40 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 95 76 93 77 / 40 20 30 20 Homestead 93 75 91 77 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 78 90 78 / 40 30 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 77 90 77 / 40 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 96 77 95 78 / 40 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 93 75 91 75 / 30 20 10 10 Boca Raton 93 76 91 76 / 40 20 20 20 Naples 93 76 95 75 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE....NC AVIATION...17