703
FXUS62 KMFL 271729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
129 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The center of a mid-level ridge will spread over South Florida
today, maintaining the hot and largely dry conditions over the
area. While isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
over the Interior and East Coast late this afternoon along the sea
breeze, most areas will see a rain-free holiday thanks to the dry
mid-levels and subsidence. The main story today will be the high
temperatures, which will likely approach daily records, reaching
the mid to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the
immediate coast). Although peak heat indices will likely reach
triple digits, the airmass should be dry enough to keep peak head
indices below heat headline criteria.

The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the
eastern CONUS, while a cold front will move into northern Florida
(and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given
increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot
and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective
activity is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous
showers and thunderstorms. The synoptic flow will remain westerly
so the mesoscale convective focus should once again be the East
Coast sea breeze and Interior areas. Given that highs will once
again reach the mid 90s across the area, steep low-lvl lapse
rates and abundant DCAPE may allow a few storms to produce strong
wet microbursts. With the flow aloft remaining modest, this strong
to severe thunderstorm threat would be fairly isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

In contrast to the ridging dominated pattern that has largely
prevailed over our area the last few weeks, the longwave pattern
through the extended period will be characterized by longwave
troughing over the eastern CONUS with several convectively-
enhanced shortwaves also likely moving into the region. At the
surface, the aforementioned cold front will likely remain stalled
near or just north of the area through most of the workweek with a
continued warm and largely sea-breeze driven wind regime
prevailing (albeit trending more easterly by the late week
period). This setup will result in generally scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, although the exact evolution will
remain somewhat uncertain as synoptic forcing remains weak making
mesoscale interactions (i.e. sea breezes and outflow boundaries)
more prominent. Temperatures should remain above normal, with
highs in the 90s (highest temperatures Interior) through the
workweek.

Heading into next weekend high pressure north of the area will build,
resulting in increasing synoptic easterly flow, and potentially even
bringing the (weak) cold front through the area. Given that we will be
entering June confidence is not super high in the front making it into
the Straits, but if anything the enhanced easterly flow should at
least knock down high temps a few degrees over the east coast
regardless of whether or not the front makes it through.
Additionally, if the stronger easterly regime materializes
instability would be knocked down and we would see a temporary
shift from a wet season diurnal deep convection regime to one in
which rain would be more of the coastal convergence showers
variety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail at all terminals through
tonight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out
this afternoon, but chances are very low. SE to SSE winds through
this evening, except westerly winds at KAPF with the sea breeze.
There will be better chances for showers and thunderstorms at the
east coast terminals on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through the
middle of the week over the Atlantic waters. There may be a brief
period of cautionary winds this afternoon and early evening
across the northern Atlantic waters, but seas will remain low.
The Gulf waters will likely see more westerly flow through the
period, particularly over the near-shore waters in the afternoon
given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze each afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with
increasing storm chances Tuesday and through the middle of the
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  93  79 /  20  30  50  40
West Kendall     95  77  95  75 /  20  30  50  40
Opa-Locka        95  79  95  78 /  20  30  50  40
Homestead        93  79  93  77 /  20  20  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  92  79 /  20  40  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  94  79  93  78 /  20  30  50  50
Pembroke Pines   96  80  96  79 /  20  30  50  40
West Palm Beach  95  77  95  76 /  10  20  50  50
Boca Raton       94  79  94  77 /  20  30  50  50
Naples           93  78  93  78 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver