221
FXUS62 KMFL 181903
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

South Florida remains situated in a region of weak synoptic ascent
as expansive mid-level ridging remains entrenched across the region
and the western Atlantic waters. At the surface, an expansive ridge
of high pressure continues to advect into the region resulting in
breezy to gusty easterlies prevailing across South Florida. Drier
air over the western Atlantic continues to pivot in, resulting in
relatively low rain chances in the forecast for today. Mesoanalysis
indicates a north to south PWAT/CAPE gradient across the region with
the most conducive values for convection to the south of our region
over the Florida Keys. Miami (KMIA) ACARS data from 16:20 UTC shows
the large column of dry air from 925mb up quite nicely. Any
shower activity that may develop today will be relatively shallow
in vertical extent with limited convective scope. Given the breezy
easterly flow, temperatures will be quite comfortable along the
immediate east coast with high temperatures in the middle 80s.
Elsewhere, temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast
for the majority of the region with the exception of the inland
locales of the Gulf coast metro area that could reach the middle
90s.

With the continued advection of easterly flow across the region, a
higher concentration of moisture will pivot into South Florida as
the surface ridge remains in firm control. The higher moisture
content will result in slightly increased rain chances across the
region with high temperatures a little cooler given an increase in
cloud cover and convection. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week
continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the
Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical
outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this
feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical
characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on
potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be
a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing
higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs,
with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the
weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we
have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential
for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the
substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and
urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values
are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in
areas recently impacted.

With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for
the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into
the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which
will keep to the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mid-upper level ridging dominates the eastern seaboard to open the
long term period. This feature will continue to build westward into
the central United States heading into the weekend. As a result,
easterly flow will continue across South Florida for the end of
the week and through the weekend. PWATs will remain around
1.5-1.7" on Thursday and Friday so thinking less convective
coverage each afternoon as the slightly drier air persists,
although the area will not remain completely dry. Heading into the
weekend, the middle atmosphere could moisten a bit again with
modeled PWATs approaching 2"-2.1" and more numerous activity is
expected. and With easterly flow, it is likely to see weaker
showers impacting the east coast areas in the morning with more
widespread rainfall affecting the rest of South Florida during the
afternoon. At this time, both the GFS and EURO have backed off
just a touch on the moisture potential for the weekend and am
comfortable at holding POPs between 50-70%. These ma need to be
adjusted as conditions become clearer closer to the weekend.

Early next week, an upper level low will come barreling across the
Great Lakes region as overall high pressure over the eastern CONUS
breaks down, and is nudged back eastward. This will lead to the
development of a more southeasterly to southerly flow across the
area for the Monday afternoon through Wednesday time period as
another weak frontal boundary stalls across the SE CONUS. Models are
hinting at another moisture surge towards the end of the period with
the return of southerly flow , but this is too far out to speculate
much at this time - just something we will keep an eye on through
the remainder of this week.

Temperatures through this long term period will be fairly
consistent.  Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the upper
80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows dipping into the mid-
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy easterly flow continues across South Florida this afternoon
with mostly VFR conditions expected outside of isolated shower
activity. Have removed VCSH out of most of the east coast terminal
sites given the current environment. That being said, if an isolated
shower does impact a terminal, a brief bout of MVFR cigs could be
realized.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid
week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up
to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters through until at least
Wednesday morning. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the
end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the
local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the
work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Continued easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents
across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  88  78  88 /  30  40  50  50
West Kendall     78  88  77  90 /  30  50  50  50
Opa-Locka        79  88  78  89 /  30  40  50  50
Homestead        80  87  79  88 /  30  50  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  86  79  86 /  40  40  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  87  79  88 /  40  40  50  50
Pembroke Pines   80  90  79  91 /  30  40  50  50
West Palm Beach  78  87  77  88 /  40  50  50  50
Boca Raton       79  88  78  88 /  40  40  50  50
Naples           77  92  76  93 /  10  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Hadi