549
FXUS62 KMFL 260657
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
257 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Models show mid-level ridging stretching its axis
from the GOMEX and into the SE CONUS, which gradually
slides southward as a trough deepens further north.
With the ridge axis moving over the peninsula,
subsidence and overall stability will increase. This
will result in decreasing chances of showers during
the short term period, with POPs/Wx coverage dropping
to the 20-30 percent range. Best chances will happen
with sea breeze activity each afternoon.

Sfc winds will become generally light with the ridge
above the area, which combined with the lack of cloud
cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s
today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across
much of South FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Models depict a change in the synoptic pattern that will
bring prevailing unsettled weather conditions through the
long term.

A trough will persist over the E CONUS during much of the
workweek with several impulses moving around its base. This
will erode the ridge over SoFlo, while pushing a sfc
boundary into the northern half of the state. Long range
solutions show this front stalling around central on
Wednesday, with SoFlo remaining in the warm sector through
the end of the week. Latest solutions bring PoPs into the
40-50 percent range each afternoon as model soundings showing
PWAT values around 2 inches, along with increasing lapse rates.

Expect a daily threat of possible urban flooding, especially
with the stronger thunderstorms. Sea breezes will once again
become the focal point for deep convection, with potential
for localized downpours. However, even with the increased rain
coverage, expect current hot conditions to continue. Afternoon
highs will remain in the low-mid 90s across metro areas, and
mid to upper 90s over some interior areas. Even higher heat
index values are possible, generally 100+ degrees each day
through at least Thursday.

By Saturday, a brief relief is possible as winds shift to the
northeast, but only a few degrees below current values.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
near the east coast terminals but currently confidence in coverage
is too low to include mention of TS in current TAFs. Light and
variable winds this morning will shift to the SE at the east coast
terminals and westerly at KAPF this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate southerly winds continue today before veering to a SE
flow on Monday and through the middle of the week. The Gulf
waters may experience westerly onshore flow each afternoon
with the sea breezes. Conditions may approach exercise criteria on
today and Monday with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly higher
gusts. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day across the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across
the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday
weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.

      5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA: 93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL: 94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI: 96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  79  93  80 /  20  10  30  20
West Kendall     95  76  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
Opa-Locka        95  78  94  79 /  20  10  30  20
Homestead        93  77  93  79 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  92  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  93  78  93  79 /  20  10  30  30
Pembroke Pines   96  79  97  80 /  20  10  30  20
West Palm Beach  93  76  94  77 /  20  10  20  30
Boca Raton       93  78  94  78 /  20  10  20  30
Naples           92  77  93  78 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...Carr