383
FXUS62 KMFL 250527
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Main story for tomorrow will be a digging short-wave impulse,
which will prompt a low-level mass response that fosters
congealing moisture and convergence of low-level winds, as well
as perhaps a slightly augmentation to bulk shear profiles. As a
result, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
across South Florida to start the holiday weekend - particularly
along the eastern half of the CWFA. An isolated strong or
marginally severe thunderstorm is certainly outside the realm of
possibilities, and the main threat will be isolated strong to
damaging winds and well as hail (lower chance of occurrence).

Not much change to the forecast overall, though latest update did
feature a slight uptick in eastern metro PoPs (into the 40s/50s).
Expecting timing for storms to be between 3-7pm, though this could
certainly shift earlier/later depending on how dynamics evolve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging is in place today
which will again result in drier than normal conditions for South
FL. 12Z sounding shows plenty of dry air in place above 850mb, and
with limited moisture in place, it`ll be mostly sunny early today
becoming partly cloudy by mid afternoon as the cumulus field expands
during the peak heating hours. Low end chance of a few showers or
isolated thunderstorm over interior SW FL late this afternoon into
early evening due to expected sea-breeze collisions across the area.
Afternoon high temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the east coast metro, to middle 90s over the interior. Clearing
skies overnight will mild temps in the lower 70s around the lake to
mid and upper 70s elsewhere.

Looking a bit more active on Saturday as the ridge temporarily
breaks down and a shortwave pivots off the SE US coast. HREF and
forecast soundings show moisture increasing with PWAT values
approaching 2 inches. Low level SW flow early in the day and the
east coast sea breeze developing mid day will result in the lift
needed to initiate convection across the east coast metro and lake
region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Even though we
aren`t currently outlooked, wouldn`t be surprised if there are a few
strong to marginally severe storms tomorrow with strong winds and
large hail the primary threats. With more of a southerly flow in
place, expect high temps to be a few degrees higher with most
locations topping out in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 90s
possible over interior SW FL. These temps with the increase in
humidity will result in heat indices around 100 degrees during the
afternoon into early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

As we move into the latter half of the weekend, a mid-level ridge
will build back over the area as the mid-level trough moves into the
Western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a weak surface trough to our NE will
lead to S/SW wind flow. With the drier mid-level air and ridging
limiting convective activity on Sunday and Monday, there will
still be potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms
(20-35%) along the east coast and interior due to the S/SW wind
flow and sufficient low level moisture. High temperatures on
Sunday and Monday will once again soar to near record values over
the east coast metro areas as they warm into the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s across the
interior & southwest. With warmer dew points, heat index values
have the potential to reach 100 to 105 across a majority of South
Florida.

Moving into Tuesday and mid-week, the mid-level ridge will break
down as a trough begins to digs into the eastern US. With this
trough, a frontal boundary will move across the southeastern US
with models indication that it will reach the FL Peninsula by
Wednesday. However, uncertainty continues in the long term as the
latest guidance remains in disagreement regarding how far south
the front pushes and if it holds together by the time it gets
into South FL. Regardless, moisture advection will slowly
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm development will be primarily
sea breeze driven with the best chances over the interior and east
coast. Afternoon high temperatures continue to rise into the
lower to mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and the upper
90s across the interior sections. With additional moisture moving
into the region, heat indices may continue to range between 100
and 105 across most areas, with potential for localized areas
rising above 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the morning
hours. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected mid-late afternoon
at the east coast terminals, with the peak window for impacts
generally from 19-02Z. Light and variable winds this morning will
trend SErly at the east coast sites (outside of thunderstorm
outflows) and westerly at KAPF this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the
local waters today. The exception to this will be over the Gulf
waters where winds will become west southwest in the afternoon as
the sea breeze develops. Winds across all local waters will
gradually become more southerly over the upcoming weekend and then
south to southwesterly during the early to middle portion of next
week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet
or less through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the local
waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today and into the
first part of the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast
metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast
highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.

      5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA: 93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL: 94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI: 96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  78  93  79 /  60  50  20  10
West Kendall     94  73  94  76 /  50  30  20  10
Opa-Locka        94  76  94  79 /  60  50  20  10
Homestead        92  76  92  78 /  40  30  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  77  91  79 /  50  50  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  92  76  93  79 /  50  50  20  10
Pembroke Pines   95  77  96  79 /  50  50  20  10
West Palm Beach  93  75  94  76 /  50  50  20  10
Boca Raton       93  76  94  78 /  50  50  20  10
Naples           91  76  91  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...Carr