853
FXUS62 KMFL 220511
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
111 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Drier air in the wake of a boundary that has slipped south and
east into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas has settled over
southern Florida. Additionally, mid-level high pressure is
extending from over the Gulf of Mexico. The 12z MFL sounding
showed a drier atmosphere with a precipitable water value of 1.74
inches. The light, generally northerly drainage flow through the
weekend will keep remoistening somewhat limited for the majority
of the area. The sea and lake breezes that develop and advance
inland will help bring a more locally moist airmass that could
help spur and support convection, but in general, activity should
be more limited in coverage compared to previous days this week.
With less cloud cover and convection, high temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast each afternoon with max heat
index values that hoover from the upper 90s to around 103.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Mid level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to slide
eastward over the region through the early to middle portion of
the week. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Southeast will gradually push into the western Atlantic as the
middle of the week approaches. At the same time, a weakening
frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the south over the
Florida Keys. As the area of high pressure shifts eastward, the
pressure gradient across the region will tighten which will allow
for easterly wind flow to increase. With the influence of mid
level ridging overhead combined with surface high pressure to the
north, a drier air mass will remain parked over South Florida
through the early portion of the week keeping PWAT values below
2.0 inches across most areas. While enough lower level moisture
will remain in place to support daily convection development along
the sea breeze boundaries, the mid level drier air will help to
reduce the coverage of convection on Monday and Tuesday. The
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain mainly
along and south of Alligator Alley during this time frame as these
locations will be closer to the stalled out frontal boundary over
the Keys. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will generally
range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s across
Southwest Florida.

Heading into the middle and end of next week, the forecast becomes
highly uncertain as all eyes turn towards a tropical disturbance
in the Carribean Sea. Rather large differences remain in the
latest ensemble and global guidance in regards to potential
development moving forward. As of 2 PM, the National Hurricane
Center still gives this disturbance a 60 percent chance of
development over the next 7 days. Until an area of low pressure
forms, guidance will still have difficulties resolving this
feature and forecast uncertainty will remain high during this
time period. For now, as winds gradually veer and become
southeast, deep moisture advection will gradually take place
heading towards the end of the week. This will result in the
coverage of the daily convection to increase during this time
frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
High temperatures for the middle to the end of the week will
generally range from the upper 80s to around 90 across most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions likely at all TAF sites through Sunday. Winds will
be light and variable overnight and in the morning before turning
E/NE in the afternoon at the eastern TAF sites. KAPF winds will
become W/NW with the Gulf breeze through the afternoon. Mostly dry
conditions with a chance for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm in the mid to late afternoon at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Generally light winds continue through Sunday with a decaying
frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and
thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to
filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out a
few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Minor coastal flooding will continue to affect all coastal areas
of South Florida around high tide today and tonight. Conditions
should begin to improve on Sunday as northerly swell and the tidal
influence decreases, but we could still see some minor coastal
flooding during high tide. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been
transitioned to a Coastal Flood Statement through Sunday evening.
Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the
Palm Beaches during the next couple of days.

High Tide Tides...
Virginia Key - 12:18 PM Sat, 12:28 AM Sun, 1:13 PM Sun
South Port Everglades - 11:35 AM Sat, 11:46 PM Sat, 12:30 PM Sun
Lake Worth Pier - 11:18 AM Sat, 11:30 PM Sat, 12:14 PM Sun
Naples Bay, North - 4:38 PM Sat, 3:32 AM Sun, 5:50 PM Sun
Flamingo Visitors Center - 6:56 PM Sat, 6:25 AM Sun, 7:53 PM Sun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  77  90  78 /  20  10  30  30
West Kendall     93  75  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
Opa-Locka        92  77  92  78 /  20  10  30  20
Homestead        90  77  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  77  89  78 /  20  20  30  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  78  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
Pembroke Pines   93  78  92  78 /  20  20  30  20
West Palm Beach  90  77  90  78 /  20  20  30  20
Boca Raton       91  77  91  78 /  20  20  30  30
Naples           91  77  92  76 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...JS