951
FXUS62 KMFL 171809
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
209 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A deep-layered area of low pressure continues to sit over the
southeastern United States with an associated frontal boundary
sagging south across the peninsula of Florida. This setup will
remain over the region through mid-week which will lead to a more
unsettled pattern but mitigate the heat risk compared to previous
days.

Thunderstorms on both days could see some enhanced support from an
upper level jet and some periods with a healthy low level jet. Ample
moisture will allow for convective coverage and PoPs to remain above
climatological norms for this time of year with more activity than
just a normal sea breeze thunderstorm day. Boundary collisions and
sea breeze interactions could provide some lower level enhancement
that could lead to strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. Strong
to locally damaging winds and localized flooding from excessive
rainfall continue to be the main concerns.

Temperatures will be warm but heat index values will not be as hot
as in recent days. The extra cloud cover could help limit the
fast-pace of diurnal heating in the mornings and reinforced cold
pools in the wake of convection could provide some brief periods
of relatively cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

With the continued propagation on the mid-level low across the
northeastern United States and western Atlantic waters, 500mb
flow over the region will remain out of a light northwesterly
direction on Thursday and Friday. Like a broken record, the pesky
stationary boundary over will remain to the north of the region
resulting in light winds at the surface. The mesoscale phenomenon
will once again dictate where convection develops and propagates
with the northwesterly flow favoring the Atlantic sea-breeze for
convective initiation each afternoon. 500mb temperatures will
remain in the -6C to -7C range as we remain on the periphery of
the influence of the departing mid-level low/troughing. By this
weekend, the influences of mid-level ridging across the central
United States will gradually nose into the region. Model guidance
hints at the potential of a surge of drier mid-level air into the
region which may act to limit spatial coverage of convection this
weekend. Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms for this
time of year with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Once the sea breezes develop and slowly advance inland, the highest
risk for sub-VFR will be this afternoon into the early evening.
Short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR may be necessary for directly impacted
terminals. Light wind flow will prevail through much of the period
turning onshore briefly with the sea breezes in the afternoon.
Conditions should improve to VFR late evening into the overnight
though some patchy inland fog/low stratus is possible. Shower and
storm chances will increase on Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Generally light winds will prevail through most of this week as a
weak surface boundary remains just to the north of the area. Seas
across the northern Atlantic waters will gradually lessen as
northerly swell declines through mid-week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could
lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Decreasing northerly swell will result in a high risk of rip
currents for the Palm Beaches once again today with a moderate risk
of rip currents elsewhere on the east coast of South Florida.

There will also be the continued potential for minor to moderate
coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically
higher tides associated with this full moon through mid-week.

High Tide Times:

* Naples: 1256 PM Tuesday, 125 AM Wednesday, 146 PM Wednesday
* Lake Worth: 814 PM Tuesday, 838 AM Wednesday, 901 PM Wednesday
* Port Everglades: 831 PM Tuesday, 858 AM Wednesday, 919 PM
  Wednesday
* Virginia Key: 918 PM Tuesday, 945 AM Wednesday, 1004 pm
  Wednesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  77  90 /  40  70  40  70
West Kendall     75  90  74  90 /  40  70  40  70
Opa-Locka        76  90  77  91 /  40  70  40  70
Homestead        76  90  76  90 /  40  70  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  89 /  40  60  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  77  90 /  40  60  40  70
Pembroke Pines   77  92  77  92 /  40  70  40  70
West Palm Beach  76  91  77  90 /  40  60  40  70
Boca Raton       76  91  77  91 /  40  60  40  70
Naples           77  91  77  90 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ069-075-
     168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...RAG