Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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957 FXUS62 KMFL 160536 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 136 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A mid to upper broad low pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States as a board surface trough remains over the Lake Okeechobee region. This will keep a light south to southwest steering flow over South Florida along with PWAT values around the 2 to 2.1 inch range. This weather pattern will allow for the scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue to over the southern areas of South Florida through the evening before dissipating tonight. The showers and thunderstorms will then redevelop over South Florida on Monday and focus over the eastern areas of South Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. A few of the storms could be strong this afternoon and again Monday afternoon over the eastern areas where the sea breezes collide. The primary impacts will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. The winds will be light tonight over South Florida along with high humidity. At the same time, the grounds are becoming saturated over the region. This combination of the two should allow for some fog formation over the interior and west coast metro areas late tonight into early Monday morning with the best coverage over the interior areas. Therefore, Patchy to areas of fog has been added to the forecast for the interior and west coast metro areas for late tonight into early Monday morning. Lows tonight will fall down into the mid to upper 70s over most areas except around 80 over the metro areas. Highs on Monday will again get up into the lower to mid 90s over South Florida with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will allow for the heat indices to increase again into the 105 to 110 range over South Florida. Therefore, a heat advisory could again be needed for portions of South Florida on Monday and will let the night shift decide if one needs to be put up for Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Models show a prevailing weather pattern over the SE CONUS dominated by a mid level trough/low complex for much of the work week, while ridging further to the north should provide enough blocking to keep the low lingering in place. Some solutions still suggest that the low could acquire tropical characteristics while moving over the western Atlantic waters by mid week. But its expected track should push it further to the NE and away from the region. Meanwhile, the Atlantic high should remain centered well to the east of the region, which will result in weak pressure gradients over SoFlo for much of the long term. The overall synoptic scenario will keep a very weak flow at the sfc, becoming light or even calm at times. Flow aloft should remain generally from the SW or W, and keeping modest moisture advection in place. Latest global models show potential for some drier air to filter into the mid levels from the GOMEX early in the week. This may lower PWATs into near normal values, but not enough to bring POPs down below 50 percent. However, enough uncertainty remains in the possible synoptic scenario to expect some revisions to the forecast philosophy. Latest model PWATs remain around the 1.7 to 2.1 inch range. The prevailing weak sfc winds and the generally SW flow aloft will keep a rain pattern favoring SoFlo`s interior and eastern metro areas. Deeper convection will again focus along sea breeze and outflow boundaries, mainly in the afternoon hours, with max POPs in the 50-60% range each day. In terms of temps, afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little and fall back to seasonal normals (upper 80s-low 90s). However, peak heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should remain just below heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours along with light winds. Some patchy fog may develop after 08z across the interior and should stay away from the terminals. On Monday morning, the east coast sea breeze will try to push inland and it may shift winds to the SSE later in the afternoon mainly at KPBI, KFLL, and KFXE. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon across the east coast terminals and could bring periods of sub-VFR conditions during this time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of this week as a frontal boundary and associated low pressure remain north of the area. Seas over the Gulf waters will generally be 2 feet or less with seas increasing this afternoon into Monday over the Atlantic waters as northerly swell generated by low pressure off the SE Coast moves in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The threat of rip currents will continue to increase along the east coast beaches of South Florida this afternoon into Monday due to a northeast swell working into these waters from the North. The treat should then decrease for the middle to end of this week, as the northeast swell dissipate. From this afternoon through the middle of the week, there will be the potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 78 91 77 / 60 40 50 40 West Kendall 92 76 90 75 / 60 30 60 40 Opa-Locka 92 78 91 77 / 60 40 50 40 Homestead 91 78 90 76 / 60 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 90 78 91 77 / 50 40 50 40 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 90 77 / 50 40 50 40 Pembroke Pines 94 78 91 77 / 60 40 50 40 West Palm Beach 93 77 90 76 / 40 30 50 40 Boca Raton 93 78 91 76 / 50 40 50 40 Naples 90 79 90 77 / 30 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BNB LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...CWC