021
FXUS62 KMFL 241602
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1202 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging is in place today
which will again result in drier than normal conditions for South
FL. 12Z sounding shows plenty of dry air in place above 850mb, and
with limited moisture in place, it`ll be mostly sunny early today
becoming partly cloudy by mid afternoon as the cumulus field expands
during the peak heating hours. Low end chance of a few showers or
isolated thunderstorm over interior SW FL late this afternoon into
early evening due to expected sea-breeze collisions across the area.
Afternoon high temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across
the east coast metro, to middle 90s over the interior. Clearing
skies overnight will mild temps in the lower 70s around the lake to
mid and upper 70s elsewhere.

Looking a bit more active on Saturday as the ridge temporarily
breaks down and a shortwave pivots off the SE US coast. HREF and
forecast soundings show moisture increasing with PWAT values
approaching 2 inches. Low level SW flow early in the day and the
east coast sea breeze developing mid day will result in the lift
needed to initiate convection across the east coast metro and lake
region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Even though we
aren`t currently outlooked, wouldn`t be surprised if there are a few
strong to marginally severe storms tomorrow with strong winds and
large hail the primary threats. With more of a southerly flow in
place, expect high temps to be a few degrees higher with most
locations topping out in the low to mid 90s, with some upper 90s
possible over interior SW FL. These temps with the increase in
humidity will result in heat indices around 100 degrees during the
afternoon into early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Heading into the second half of the upcoming Holiday Weekend, Mid level
ridging will briefly build back into South Florida as the weak
mid level trough pushes away from the region and further into the
western Atlantic. The weak surface trough off to the northeast
will still be close enough to provide a south to southwesterly
wind flow across the region on Sunday and Monday. With subsidence
taking place due to the mid level ridge over the region, shower
and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited during this
time frame with a drier air layer pushing back into the mid
levels, however, convection cannot be entirely ruled out. Any
shower or thunderstorm development would favor the interior and
east coast during this time frame due to the south to
southwesterly wind flow and would be low topped and short lived.
High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will once again soar to
near record values over the east coast metro areas as they rise
into the lower to mid 90s. High temperatures will rise into the
upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat index values will
range between 100 and 105 across most areas during this time
frame.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, mid level ridging will break down once again
as a stronger mid level trough digs southeastward from the Great
Lakes Region and pushes across the Eastern Seaboard. At the
surface, a weakening frontal boundary will push through the Gulf
Coast States on Tuesday and then into Northern and Central Florida
on Wednesday. Out ahead of this front, south to southwesterly
wind flow will continue and moisture advection will take place
during this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of
the forecast as the latest guidance continues to remain in
disagreement regarding how far south the front pushes and if the
front holds together by the time it gets this far south. In any
event, moisture advection will slowly increase the chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into Wednesday. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm development will still be mainly sea
breeze driven and the highest chances will remain over the
interior and east coast. Hot conditions will remain in place
during this time frame as high temperatures rise into the lower to
mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 90s
across the interior sections. With additional moisture moving into
the region, heat indices could continue to range between 100 and
105 across most areas with some localized areas rising above 105.
This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds early
this morning becoming easterly 10-15 kts after 15Z this morning. A
westerly Gulf breeze will develop at APF this afternoon. Winds
become light and variable again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the
local waters today. The exception to this will be over the Gulf
waters where winds will become west southwest in the afternoon as
the sea breeze develops. Winds across all local waters will
gradually become more southerly over the upcoming weekend and then
south to southwesterly during the early to middle portion of next
week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet
or less through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the local
waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today and into the
first part of the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast
metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast
highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.

      5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA: 93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL: 94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI: 96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  94  78  93 /  10  30  10  20
West Kendall     74  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  10
Opa-Locka        77  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  20
Homestead        76  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  78  92  78  92 /   0  30  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  92  77  93 /   0  30  20  20
Pembroke Pines   77  95  78  96 /   0  30  10  20
West Palm Beach  74  93  75  94 /   0  40  20  20
Boca Raton       76  93  77  94 /   0  30  20  20
Naples           78  91  77  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF