003
FXUS62 KMFL 191152
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Models begin the short term with mid level ridging centered over the
SE CONUS and the northern portions of the peninsula, with a
generally easterly flow across SoFlo today. This will keep bringing
moderate easterlies, and becoming gusty at times along the east
coast. Meanwhile, latest NHC forecast continues to highlight low
chances of tropical development about a weak trough approaching
the SE US coast. But regardless of the final outcome of this
feature, it will begin to at least inject deeper moisture across
the region, with POPs increasing into the 50-60 percent range
this afternoon over SoFlo. This will result in afternoon scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms favoring interior and
west coast areas as the dominant easterlies quickly push the
Atlantic coast sea breeze further inland. A similar weather
pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced moisture advection
resulting in slightly higher POPs, and more widespread across the
area. The situation will continue to be closely monitored as any
changes in the development of the aforementioned weak trough could
result in changes to the forecast outlook.

The modest increase in cloud cover today and tomorrow will keep
afternoon max temps one or two degrees cooler than the past few
days. Expect upper 80 to around 90 over the Atlantic side of SoFlo,
and in the low 90s over interior and west coast locations. Cooler
values could happen in locations that the heaviest downpours occur
during the normal peak heating hours. Heat index values should
remain in the upper 90s to low 100s, but locally higher values are
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure, and it`s partnering mid-level ridging, will
continue to dominate the eastern CONUS seaboard as we move into the
long term. This feature will build westward into the central United
States as we head into the weekend. As a result, the strong easterly
flow will continue across South Florida for the end of the week and
through the weekend. With potential for relatively moderate PWATs
(~1.5-1.7") and instability, there will be less convective coverage
as the slightly drier air persists, but there will be potential for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday.

Heading into the weekend, the ensembles indicate an increase in
moisture with modeled PWATs approaching 2.0"-2.2" and more activity
is expected. With the easterly flow and the high to our north, we
will remain in the climatological pattern with weaker showers
impacting the east coast areas in the morning followed by more
rainfall affecting the rest of South Florida in the latter half of
the day. While the models have backed off on moisture potential,
there is a chance for light to moderate showers (40-60%) and
possible brief downpours and lightning associated with any
thunderstorms across the region. Best chance for rainfall
accumulation will be in the afternoon across the interior and SW FL.

Early next week, an upper level low will come barreling across the
Great Lakes region as the high pressure over the eastern CONUS
breaks down and nudged back eastward. This will lead to the
development of a more S/SE flow across the area for the start of the
week as another frontal boundary approaches the SE CONUS. Models are
hinting at another moisture surge with the return of southerly flow,
but this is too far out for confidence in impact just yet.

With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal and
quite consistent through the weekend and into the new week. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide.
Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions through the period as gusty easterly flow
prevails. Stray SHRA/TSRA could result in brief periods of MVFR
conditions along East Coast terminals this morning and early
afternoon; did not include TEMPOs in this forecast cycle due to
low confidence of timing and duration. SHRA/TSRA moves inland
after 20Z- with the potential for sub-VFR conditions shifting
westward towards KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy and gusty easterly winds continue today, along with seas up
to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine waters
through this morning, then continuing for the Atlantic waters until
at least Thursday morning. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will
lead to lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming
more numerous through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across
all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. Surf will
remain elevated, possibly in the 3-4 feet range over the Palm Beach
and Broward county beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  79  89  80 /  50  50  50  30
West Kendall     88  76  90  78 /  50  50  50  30
Opa-Locka        88  78  90  79 /  50  50  50  30
Homestead        87  78  89  79 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  79  87  80 /  60  50  50  40
N Ft Lauderdale  88  79  87  79 /  50  50  50  30
Pembroke Pines   89  79  91  80 /  50  50  50  30
West Palm Beach  87  77  87  78 /  60  50  60  30
Boca Raton       87  78  88  79 /  50  50  50  30
Naples           92  76  93  77 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...ATV