735
FXUS62 KMFL 140639
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
239 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The mid level shortwave trough does not move much today and remains
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as South Florida. At
the surface, an area of low pressure will push further northeastward
in the western Atlantic off of the Carolina Coastline. This will
allow for a moisture rich southwesterly wind flow to remain in place
through today. Deep tropical moisture will continue to funnel into
the region during this time. With the mid level trough in place,
this will provide enough lift an instability once again to support
more rounds of showers and thunderstorms as the day progresses. With
the area of low pressure pulling away from the region, the latest hi-
res guidance shows the focus of convection over the southern third
of the region as the moisture tail associated with the low shifts
southward. Convection coverage will still be high over the region
especially across southern areas this afternoon, however, it will
not be as widespread as it has been over the past several days
especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. In any event, with
the abundance of tropical moisture still remaining in place, heavy
downpours will still be possible with showers and thunderstorms that
push through the region. With the possibility of multiple rounds of
heavy downpours setting up once again in already saturated areas as
well as locations with ongoing flooding, there remains the potential
for additional significant flooding to develop especially along and
south of Alligator Alley. Additional rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches will remain possible today with localized higher amounts
possible especially across the southern areas. Because of this, the
Flood Watch will remain in effect across all of South Florida
through this evening.

Heading into Saturday, the mid level trough axis will remain
near the region throughout most of the day and not move very much
during this time frame. At the surface, while the area of low
pressure will move further away to the northeast in the western
Atlantic, South Florida will still be close enough to the moisture
tail to support higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The
latest guidance still shows PWAT values ranging between 2.0 and 2.3
inches throughout the day on Saturday. This is more than enough
moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development as the day
progresses. The highest chances will remain in the afternoon hours
and heavy downpours will still be possible with the strongest
thunderstorms. This would create the potential for additional
flooding concerns depending on where the stronger storms set up.
This will continue to be monitored as the day progresses. High
temperatures today and Saturday will generally remain in the mid to
upper 80s across most areas. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

This weekend: An upper level trough will still be the dominant
synoptic feature over the area and it will come into phase with an
amplifying trough over the eastern United States and Canada. As the
surface low off the Southeast United States moves to the northeast,
surface flow across South Florida will become easterly by Sunday
afternoon which will be the start of a return to normalcy. Modeled
PWATs will still remain at or above 2 inches Saturday and Sunday,
which is at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. It
is possible we remain in the `moisture tail` of the surface low
through the weekend, with the most enhanced moisture draped across
far southern portions of the area. Showers and storms are likely
each day through the weekend before drier air finally begins to
filter across the area on Monday. As the low continues to push
further and further away from South Florida, the coverage of showers
and storms is not expected to be as widespread or numerous as what
we experienced earlier this week. Still, given the extremely wet
conditions this week, the Flood Watch may need to be extended into
the weekend.

Early next week: Surface high pressure will build across the region
again late Sunday into Monday which should return us to a more
typical summertime easterly regime. This will allow the eastern sea
breeze to progress relatively far inland and keep the best chances
for showers and storms across interior South Florida and Southwest
Florida each afternoon.

Highs through the period will be in the upper 80s with heat indices
in the upper 90s to lower 100s. With the return of the easterly
regime, Southwest Florida will experience slightly warmer
temperatures and heat indices each day.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the overnight hours.
Generally light and variable winds overnight will increase out of
the SW by the middle of Friday morning. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms develop once again later on Friday morning into
Friday afternoon and could bring sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals especially during the afternoon hours. Short fused AMDs
will be likely once again this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A moderate to fresh southwesterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters through today. These winds will become
gentle to moderate for the upcoming weekend and they will gradually
shift and become east northeasterly on Sunday. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less
through the upcoming weekend. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
will still be possible today and into the upcoming weekend. Winds
and waves may be locally higher in and around showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  76  87  78 /  90  50  80  40
West Kendall     85  74  85  76 /  90  50  80  40
Opa-Locka        86  76  87  77 /  90  50  80  30
Homestead        85  76  85  77 /  90  50  80  40
Fort Lauderdale  85  76  86  78 /  90  60  80  40
N Ft Lauderdale  86  76  87  78 /  90  60  80  40
Pembroke Pines   86  76  87  78 /  90  50  80  30
West Palm Beach  87  74  86  77 /  90  60  80  30
Boca Raton       86  75  86  78 /  90  60  80  40
Naples           86  77  87  78 /  90  70  90  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Rizzuto/RAG
AVIATION...CWC