512
FXUS62 KMFL 180755
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
355 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Models show the remnants of a mid level shortwave trough departing
the region, and followed by incoming drier air from the west
Atlantic. Meanwhile, high pressure establishes over the SE CONUS and
expanding into northern Florida,  bringing moderate easterlies
across SoFlo, possibly gusty at times along the east coast. Latest
model PWATs continue to drop to near 1 inch Tuesday morning, with
relatively dry conditions prevailing. Then the synoptic setup begin
to quickly modify as another shortwave trough moves along the
easterly flow, mainly across the southern half of the CWA. This will
result in a modest increase in POPs this afternoon, with best
chances around Palm Beach and northern Broward where 40-45 percent
coverage is expected.

For Wednesday, models begin pushing the aforementioned high further
north as a sfc trough approaches the SE US coast from the west
Atlantic. This brings a further enhancement of moisture advection
over SoFlo, with POPs back in the 50-60 percent range by the
afternoon hours. Thus, scattered to numerous showers and storms
should move across the area with some possible strong cells.

Temperatures remain at or higher than normals, with low 90s around
the Atlantic coast, and in the mid 90s over interior and Gulf coast
areas. Heat index values should reach the low 100s each day, but
locally higher values are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary feature to watch for in the latter half of the week
continues to be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the
Bahamas associated with a surface trough. The latest tropical
outlook (06Z) by the National Hurricane Center indicates this
feature has a low end chance (20%) of developing tropical
characteristics over the next 7 days. We continue to keep an eye on
potential development of the surface low. Regardless, there will be
a surge of moisture into South Florida late this week bringing
higher chances of daily showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
extended forecast (50-70%). The ensembles forecast a rise in PWATs,
with a majority of members pushing 2"+, starting Thursday into the
weekend. Therefore, formation of a tropical disturbance or not, we
have an active, wet week and weekend ahead of us with the potential
for rainfall and thunderstorms across South Florida. Due to the
substantial rainfall last week, the ground is heavily saturated and
urban areas sensitive to heavy rain. While the forecast QPF values
are relatively low, any quick, heavy showers may lead to flooding in
areas recently impacted.

With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal for
the remainder of the week and weekend. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into
the 70s for a majority of South FL, other than the east coast which
will keep to the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mainly VFR prevails today, but some passing showers are possible
in the early afternoon hours over the Atlantic terminals. Will
keep no restrictions in the TAFs for now with VCSH after 18Z.
Easterly winds remain breezy with gusts in the 25-30kt range this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Expect moderate to breezy easterly winds to prevail through mid
week, along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up
to 5 feet over the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for all marine waters through this morning, then continuing for the
Atlantic waters until at least Wednesday morning. Some slight
decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to
lead to lower seas to end the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming
more numerous through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Increasing easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across
all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. Surf
should also increase, possibly in the 3-4 feet range today and
Wednesday over the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  87  79 /  40  40  50  50
West Kendall     89  77  88  77 /  40  40  50  50
Opa-Locka        90  79  89  78 /  40  40  50  50
Homestead        88  79  87  79 /  30  40  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  87  79  86  79 /  40  40  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  88  79  87  79 /  40  40  50  50
Pembroke Pines   91  79  89  79 /  40  40  50  50
West Palm Beach  89  77  88  77 /  50  40  60  50
Boca Raton       89  78  88  78 /  40  40  60  50
Naples           94  77  91  76 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...17
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...17