Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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310 FXUS62 KMFL 150534 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 134 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 705 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Conditions have quieted down this evening with some lingering showers around Biscayne Bay and far southeast Florida. This band should weaken and push offshore as it pushes northeast. A quiet night is then expected beyond that, though it will be possible for a few showers to pop up overnight. Plenty of moisture will still be around for Saturday, although coverage of showers and storms is not expected to be like the previous few days. That said, a Flood Watch remains in effect at this point through tomorrow but for only coastal and metro portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties. These areas were hit hardest in the last few days and thus are most susceptible to sudden onsets of flooding issues given saturated grounds and lingering ponding of water in some locations with poor drainage. Any heavier isolated showers or storms that occur over those vulnerable locations could turn problematic quickly. Temperatures tomorrow across south Florida will stay in the 80s, mainly in the mid 80s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida, while a mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The plume of enhanced moisture which sat over South FL for the past couple of days has shifted southward this morning, with the main bulk of it now sitting over the FL Keys. This has allowed for drier mid-level air to filter in over the area as shown by the ACARS and 12Z MFL soundings. As a result, much of the convection early this morning has been confined to the FL Keys/Straits and southern portions of the CWA. This will be the prevailing pattern of behavior for the rest of the day as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across South FL. Coverage will not be as widespread as previous days, but increased daytime heating as a result of decreased cloud coverage will help destabilize the atmosphere enough to support thunderstorm development and some heavy downpours. Guidance suggests some areas could see between 1-2" of rain, with localized higher amounts possible through the day which could trigger concerns for flash flooding, especially for vulnerable areas that received several inches of rain over the past several days. Heading into Saturday, the mid level trough axis will remain near the region. At the surface, while Invest AL90 will move further away to the northeast in the western Atlantic, South Florida will still be close enough to the moisture tail to support higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The latest guidance still shows PWAT values ranging between 2.0 and 2.3 inches throughout the day on Saturday. This is more than enough moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development as the day progresses. The highest chances will remain in the afternoon hours and heavy downpours will still be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. This would create the potential for additional flooding concerns depending on where the stronger storms set up. This will continue to be monitored as the day progresses. High temperatures today and tomorrow could reach the upper 80s areas across the northern CWA where cloud coverage will be most limited, with temperatures further south where the rain chances are maximized reaching the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Models depict a synoptic pattern dominated by upper level troughiness over the area, while a mid level trough/low complex deepens across the E CONUS. Globals/ensembles show fair agreement in pushing the trough/low into the west Atlantic during the weekend, which will result in a gradual shift of winds over SoFlo to a more easterly flow by Sunday. This weather pattern shift should bring the onset of closer-to-normal conditions for this time of the year and provide a break from the rain event of previous days. Sunday should still see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, then drier air finally begins to filter across the area during the first half of next week. With the aforementioned trough/low migrating further away from the region, the overall shower/storm activity should decrease across SoFlo, but with enough PWAT/lapse rate profiles remaining in place for scattered coverage to return each afternoon. Monday through mid week, models show a sfc high pressure building across the peninsula and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the aforementioned more typical summertime weather regime of afternoon seabreeze activity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor interior areas as the east coast seabreezes develop early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. But can`t rule out a few strong storms affecting any of the Atlantic metro areas at times. Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards the middle of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the overnight hours. Light winds overnight will increase out of the SW by the middle of Saturday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again Saturday afternoon and could bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals especially later in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity should gradually diminsh as Saturday evening progresses. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A moderate to fresh southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters today. These winds will become gentle to moderate for the upcoming weekend and they will gradually shift and become east northeasterly on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible today and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and waves may be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 79 88 79 / 60 40 30 20 West Kendall 85 75 90 77 / 50 40 30 20 Opa-Locka 85 77 90 79 / 60 40 30 20 Homestead 86 77 88 79 / 50 40 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 85 79 87 80 / 50 30 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 85 78 88 80 / 60 30 30 20 Pembroke Pines 85 78 91 80 / 60 30 30 20 West Palm Beach 85 77 88 78 / 60 40 30 20 Boca Raton 85 77 88 79 / 60 30 30 20 Naples 85 77 91 77 / 70 40 50 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ072-074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...CWC